Current ensemble forecasts from NOAA and the National Weather Service indicate that the overnight low in New York City on May 25 will likely fall in the mid-50s to low-60s Fahrenheit, driven by a post-frontal cool-down following the recent heat wave and variable cloud cover that modulates radiational cooling overnight. Model runs show modest spread in minimum temperatures due to differences in projected wind speeds, humidity levels, and any scattered showers, with historical May climatology placing typical overnight lows near 55–58°F as a baseline. This genuine forecast uncertainty explains the closely matched market-implied odds across multiple temperature brackets, as traders weigh the potential for stronger cooling under clearer skies against milder conditions if southerly flow strengthens. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the range ahead of market resolution.