Current short-range forecast models, including those from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles, project Istanbul's June 6 afternoon high near 24–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with moderate southerly flow and limited moisture. This consensus, consistent with early-summer climatology where daily maxima average 25–26 °C, explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24 °C and 25 °C. Minor model spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing, which could shift peak readings by 1–2 °C either way; stronger insolation or clearer conditions would favor the upper end of that range, while increased marine influence from the Bosphorus tends to cap temperatures near the lower end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 6?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 6?
25°C 33%
24°C 27%
26°C 17%
23°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 6, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
8%
24°C
27%
25°C
33%
26°C
17%
27°C
6%
28°C
5%
29°C or higher
1%
25°C 33%
24°C 27%
26°C 17%
23°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 6, 2026
19°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$65 Vol.
1%
21°C
$155 Vol.
2%
22°C
$112 Vol.
2%
23°C
$118 Vol.
8%
24°C
$98 Vol.
27%
25°C
$73 Vol.
33%
26°C
$5 Vol.
17%
27°C
$0 Vol.
6%
28°C
$64 Vol.
5%
29°C or higher
$172 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecast models, including those from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles, project Istanbul's June 6 afternoon high near 24–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with moderate southerly flow and limited moisture. This consensus, consistent with early-summer climatology where daily maxima average 25–26 °C, explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24 °C and 25 °C. Minor model spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing, which could shift peak readings by 1–2 °C either way; stronger insolation or clearer conditions would favor the upper end of that range, while increased marine influence from the Bosphorus tends to cap temperatures near the lower end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 5, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$847End Date
Jun 6, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecast models, including those from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles, project Istanbul's June 6 afternoon high near 24–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with moderate southerly flow and limited moisture. This consensus, consistent with early-summer climatology where daily maxima average 25–26 °C, explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24 °C and 25 °C. Minor model spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing, which could shift peak readings by 1–2 °C either way; stronger insolation or clearer conditions would favor the upper end of that range, while increased marine influence from the Bosphorus tends to cap temperatures near the lower end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$847End Date
Jun 6, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecast models, including those from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles, project Istanbul's June 6 afternoon high near 24–26 °C under partly cloudy skies with moderate southerly flow and limited moisture. This consensus, consistent with early-summer climatology where daily maxima average 25–26 °C, explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24 °C and 25 °C. Minor model spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing, which could shift peak readings by 1–2 °C either way; stronger insolation or clearer conditions would favor the upper end of that range, while increased marine influence from the Bosphorus tends to cap temperatures near the lower end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions