Current model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional ensembles points to a daily maximum between 29 °C and 31 °C for May 22, driven by the seasonal shift into early summer under a backdrop of normal-to-above-normal temperatures across May–July. Recent analyses show modest positive temperature anomalies relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover expected to allow peak readings near or slightly above 30 °C. The 43.5 % market-implied probability on 31 °C or higher reflects trader assessment of ensemble spread that includes brief warming episodes, while the combined 44.5 % on 29–30 °C captures the central tendency of most guidance. Updated short-range forecasts and any overnight adjustments to boundary-layer moisture will determine whether the highest reading settles at or above the 31 °C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 22?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 22?
31°C or higher 45%
30°C 27%
29°C 18%
28°C 7%
NEW
$14,496 Vol.
NEW
$14,496 Vol.
May 22, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
7%
29°C
18%
30°C
27%
31°C or higher
45%
31°C or higher 45%
30°C 27%
29°C 18%
28°C 7%
NEW
$14,496 Vol.
NEW
$14,496 Vol.
May 22, 2026
21°C or below
$772 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,745 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$243 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$3,350 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,668 Vol.
1%
26°C
$2,963 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,341 Vol.
3%
28°C
$475 Vol.
7%
29°C
$457 Vol.
18%
30°C
$315 Vol.
27%
31°C or higher
$1,326 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional ensembles points to a daily maximum between 29 °C and 31 °C for May 22, driven by the seasonal shift into early summer under a backdrop of normal-to-above-normal temperatures across May–July. Recent analyses show modest positive temperature anomalies relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover expected to allow peak readings near or slightly above 30 °C. The 43.5 % market-implied probability on 31 °C or higher reflects trader assessment of ensemble spread that includes brief warming episodes, while the combined 44.5 % on 29–30 °C captures the central tendency of most guidance. Updated short-range forecasts and any overnight adjustments to boundary-layer moisture will determine whether the highest reading settles at or above the 31 °C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$14,496End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional ensembles points to a daily maximum between 29 °C and 31 °C for May 22, driven by the seasonal shift into early summer under a backdrop of normal-to-above-normal temperatures across May–July. Recent analyses show modest positive temperature anomalies relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover expected to allow peak readings near or slightly above 30 °C. The 43.5 % market-implied probability on 31 °C or higher reflects trader assessment of ensemble spread that includes brief warming episodes, while the combined 44.5 % on 29–30 °C captures the central tendency of most guidance. Updated short-range forecasts and any overnight adjustments to boundary-layer moisture will determine whether the highest reading settles at or above the 31 °C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,496End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional ensembles points to a daily maximum between 29 °C and 31 °C for May 22, driven by the seasonal shift into early summer under a backdrop of normal-to-above-normal temperatures across May–July. Recent analyses show modest positive temperature anomalies relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover expected to allow peak readings near or slightly above 30 °C. The 43.5 % market-implied probability on 31 °C or higher reflects trader assessment of ensemble spread that includes brief warming episodes, while the combined 44.5 % on 29–30 °C captures the central tendency of most guidance. Updated short-range forecasts and any overnight adjustments to boundary-layer moisture will determine whether the highest reading settles at or above the 31 °C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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