Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global numerical models indicate a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 18, positioning the 30–32°C outcomes as the tightest cluster in the market. This reflects typical late-spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin, where subsidence from the western Pacific subtropical high combines with limited cloud cover and light southerly flow to allow modest daytime warming. Model spread arises mainly from small differences in predicted boundary-layer moisture and afternoon convective timing, which can trim or boost the peak by 1–2°C. Official resolution will rely on the verified high at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, with final model updates expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 18?
30°C 27%
31°C 26%
32°C 22%
29°C 15%
NEW
$16,372 Vol.
NEW
$16,372 Vol.
May 18, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
11%
29°C
15%
30°C
27%
31°C
26%
32°C
22%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 27%
31°C 26%
32°C 22%
29°C 15%
NEW
$16,372 Vol.
NEW
$16,372 Vol.
May 18, 2026
26°C or below
$2,455 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,297 Vol.
1%
28°C
$836 Vol.
11%
29°C
$1,187 Vol.
15%
30°C
$788 Vol.
27%
31°C
$1,173 Vol.
26%
32°C
$1,106 Vol.
22%
33°C
$990 Vol.
5%
34°C
$1,204 Vol.
2%
35°C
$732 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$4,604 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global numerical models indicate a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 18, positioning the 30–32°C outcomes as the tightest cluster in the market. This reflects typical late-spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin, where subsidence from the western Pacific subtropical high combines with limited cloud cover and light southerly flow to allow modest daytime warming. Model spread arises mainly from small differences in predicted boundary-layer moisture and afternoon convective timing, which can trim or boost the peak by 1–2°C. Official resolution will rely on the verified high at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, with final model updates expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$16,372End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global numerical models indicate a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 18, positioning the 30–32°C outcomes as the tightest cluster in the market. This reflects typical late-spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin, where subsidence from the western Pacific subtropical high combines with limited cloud cover and light southerly flow to allow modest daytime warming. Model spread arises mainly from small differences in predicted boundary-layer moisture and afternoon convective timing, which can trim or boost the peak by 1–2°C. Official resolution will rely on the verified high at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, with final model updates expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,372End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUURecent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global numerical models indicate a daily maximum near 31°C for Chengdu on May 18, positioning the 30–32°C outcomes as the tightest cluster in the market. This reflects typical late-spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin, where subsidence from the western Pacific subtropical high combines with limited cloud cover and light southerly flow to allow modest daytime warming. Model spread arises mainly from small differences in predicted boundary-layer moisture and afternoon convective timing, which can trim or boost the peak by 1–2°C. Official resolution will rely on the verified high at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, with final model updates expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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