Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a warming trend across central Texas, with ensemble forecasts now favoring afternoon highs reaching or exceeding 90°F in Austin on May 19 amid southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs near 85–87°F can shift several degrees higher when a subtropical ridge strengthens without frontal interference. Updated runs from NOAA show modest upward revisions in the past 48 hours, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could cap temperatures if they develop earlier than projected. Traders are pricing the 90°F-or-higher outcome as the modal range because resolution hinges on the official Austin-Bergstrom ASOS reading, and current guidance places the most likely peak in the low 90s before any evening cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on May 19?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 19?
90°F or higher 42%
88-89°F 28%
86-87°F 15%
84-85°F 9%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
28%
90°F or higher
42%
90°F or higher 42%
88-89°F 28%
86-87°F 15%
84-85°F 9%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
71°F or below
$1,720 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$2,230 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$2,405 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$1,154 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,023 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$57 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$30 Vol.
9%
86-87°F
$145 Vol.
15%
88-89°F
$209 Vol.
28%
90°F or higher
$323 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a warming trend across central Texas, with ensemble forecasts now favoring afternoon highs reaching or exceeding 90°F in Austin on May 19 amid southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs near 85–87°F can shift several degrees higher when a subtropical ridge strengthens without frontal interference. Updated runs from NOAA show modest upward revisions in the past 48 hours, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could cap temperatures if they develop earlier than projected. Traders are pricing the 90°F-or-higher outcome as the modal range because resolution hinges on the official Austin-Bergstrom ASOS reading, and current guidance places the most likely peak in the low 90s before any evening cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$9,294End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a warming trend across central Texas, with ensemble forecasts now favoring afternoon highs reaching or exceeding 90°F in Austin on May 19 amid southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs near 85–87°F can shift several degrees higher when a subtropical ridge strengthens without frontal interference. Updated runs from NOAA show modest upward revisions in the past 48 hours, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could cap temperatures if they develop earlier than projected. Traders are pricing the 90°F-or-higher outcome as the modal range because resolution hinges on the official Austin-Bergstrom ASOS reading, and current guidance places the most likely peak in the low 90s before any evening cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,294End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSRecent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a warming trend across central Texas, with ensemble forecasts now favoring afternoon highs reaching or exceeding 90°F in Austin on May 19 amid southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where average highs near 85–87°F can shift several degrees higher when a subtropical ridge strengthens without frontal interference. Updated runs from NOAA show modest upward revisions in the past 48 hours, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could cap temperatures if they develop earlier than projected. Traders are pricing the 90°F-or-higher outcome as the modal range because resolution hinges on the official Austin-Bergstrom ASOS reading, and current guidance places the most likely peak in the low 90s before any evening cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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