National Weather Service short-range model consensus and ensemble guidance now project a daily high of 90–93°F for Austin on May 18, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary and ample May sunshine that favors boundary-layer warming. This places the 90°F-or-higher outcome at the center of current trader positioning, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when highs routinely reach the upper 80s to low 90s. Afternoon thunderstorm development could introduce minor cooling, yet the bulk of guidance keeps peak readings above the 90°F threshold. Updated model runs and National Weather Service forecast discussions expected through the evening will provide the next clear signals for any downward revision in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on May 18?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 18?
90°F or higher 72%
88-89°F 20%
86-87°F 8%
84-85°F <1%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
8%
88-89°F
20%
90°F or higher
72%
90°F or higher 72%
88-89°F 20%
86-87°F 8%
84-85°F <1%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
71°F or below
$798 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$865 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$766 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$1,037 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$343 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$657 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$137 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$616 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$223 Vol.
8%
88-89°F
$393 Vol.
20%
90°F or higher
$693 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service short-range model consensus and ensemble guidance now project a daily high of 90–93°F for Austin on May 18, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary and ample May sunshine that favors boundary-layer warming. This places the 90°F-or-higher outcome at the center of current trader positioning, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when highs routinely reach the upper 80s to low 90s. Afternoon thunderstorm development could introduce minor cooling, yet the bulk of guidance keeps peak readings above the 90°F threshold. Updated model runs and National Weather Service forecast discussions expected through the evening will provide the next clear signals for any downward revision in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$6,530End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service short-range model consensus and ensemble guidance now project a daily high of 90–93°F for Austin on May 18, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary and ample May sunshine that favors boundary-layer warming. This places the 90°F-or-higher outcome at the center of current trader positioning, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when highs routinely reach the upper 80s to low 90s. Afternoon thunderstorm development could introduce minor cooling, yet the bulk of guidance keeps peak readings above the 90°F threshold. Updated model runs and National Weather Service forecast discussions expected through the evening will provide the next clear signals for any downward revision in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,530End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSNational Weather Service short-range model consensus and ensemble guidance now project a daily high of 90–93°F for Austin on May 18, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary and ample May sunshine that favors boundary-layer warming. This places the 90°F-or-higher outcome at the center of current trader positioning, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when highs routinely reach the upper 80s to low 90s. Afternoon thunderstorm development could introduce minor cooling, yet the bulk of guidance keeps peak readings above the 90°F threshold. Updated model runs and National Weather Service forecast discussions expected through the evening will provide the next clear signals for any downward revision in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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