Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 44% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this September, driven primarily by the National Snow and Ice Data Center's (NSIDC) confirmation of a record-low or tied winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, 2026—1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average—reflecting thinner, younger ice highly vulnerable to summer melt. Persistently low extents through late April and early May 2026, amid ongoing Arctic amplification, further bolster bets on aggressive decline, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasting an 80% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, historically linked to enhanced melt via altered atmospheric circulation. Historical September minima have averaged around 4.5 million square kilometers recently, but current conditions echo 2012's record low of 3.41 million square kilometers; uncertainty persists with initial Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks expected in June.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
<4 millones km² 44%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 25.5%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 7.6%
4,6-4,8 millones de km² 6%
$33,802 Vol.
$33,802 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
44%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
26%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
6%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
8%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
6%
4.8-5 millones de km²
1%
5+ millones de km²
2%
<4 millones km² 44%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 25.5%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 7.6%
4,6-4,8 millones de km² 6%
$33,802 Vol.
$33,802 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
$24,487 Vol.
44%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
$3,074 Vol.
26%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
$1,025 Vol.
6%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
$1,088 Vol.
8%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
$2,225 Vol.
6%
4.8-5 millones de km²
$901 Vol.
1%
5+ millones de km²
$1,003 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 44% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this September, driven primarily by the National Snow and Ice Data Center's (NSIDC) confirmation of a record-low or tied winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, 2026—1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average—reflecting thinner, younger ice highly vulnerable to summer melt. Persistently low extents through late April and early May 2026, amid ongoing Arctic amplification, further bolster bets on aggressive decline, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasting an 80% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, historically linked to enhanced melt via altered atmospheric circulation. Historical September minima have averaged around 4.5 million square kilometers recently, but current conditions echo 2012's record low of 3.41 million square kilometers; uncertainty persists with initial Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks expected in June.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$33,802Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 44% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this September, driven primarily by the National Snow and Ice Data Center's (NSIDC) confirmation of a record-low or tied winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, 2026—1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average—reflecting thinner, younger ice highly vulnerable to summer melt. Persistently low extents through late April and early May 2026, amid ongoing Arctic amplification, further bolster bets on aggressive decline, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasting an 80% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, historically linked to enhanced melt via altered atmospheric circulation. Historical September minima have averaged around 4.5 million square kilometers recently, but current conditions echo 2012's record low of 3.41 million square kilometers; uncertainty persists with initial Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks expected in June.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$33,802Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 44% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this September, driven primarily by the National Snow and Ice Data Center's (NSIDC) confirmation of a record-low or tied winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, 2026—1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average—reflecting thinner, younger ice highly vulnerable to summer melt. Persistently low extents through late April and early May 2026, amid ongoing Arctic amplification, further bolster bets on aggressive decline, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasting an 80% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, historically linked to enhanced melt via altered atmospheric circulation. Historical September minima have averaged around 4.5 million square kilometers recently, but current conditions echo 2012's record low of 3.41 million square kilometers; uncertainty persists with initial Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks expected in June.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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