With five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes already recorded in 2026 per USGS data—including a recent cluster along the Pacific Ring of Fire with a M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1, and M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20—traders assign an 80.3% implied probability to eight or more by June 30. This reflects historical baselines of about 16 such events annually worldwide, driven by tectonic plate motions at subduction zones, projecting 2–3 additional quakes in the coming two months amid ongoing seismic release. The 15.8% odds on exactly seven acknowledge inherent unpredictability in earthquake occurrence, with USGS real-time monitoring providing the next key data updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más para el 30 de junio?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más para el 30 de junio?
$1,847,200 Vol.
$1,847,200 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Título del grupo: 7
16%
8+
81%
$1,847,200 Vol.
$1,847,200 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Título del grupo: 7
$284,851 Vol.
16%
8+
$548,763 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes already recorded in 2026 per USGS data—including a recent cluster along the Pacific Ring of Fire with a M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1, and M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20—traders assign an 80.3% implied probability to eight or more by June 30. This reflects historical baselines of about 16 such events annually worldwide, driven by tectonic plate motions at subduction zones, projecting 2–3 additional quakes in the coming two months amid ongoing seismic release. The 15.8% odds on exactly seven acknowledge inherent unpredictability in earthquake occurrence, with USGS real-time monitoring providing the next key data updates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
Volumen
$1,847,200Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes already recorded in 2026 per USGS data—including a recent cluster along the Pacific Ring of Fire with a M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1, and M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20—traders assign an 80.3% implied probability to eight or more by June 30. This reflects historical baselines of about 16 such events annually worldwide, driven by tectonic plate motions at subduction zones, projecting 2–3 additional quakes in the coming two months amid ongoing seismic release. The 15.8% odds on exactly seven acknowledge inherent unpredictability in earthquake occurrence, with USGS real-time monitoring providing the next key data updates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,847,200Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes already recorded in 2026 per USGS data—including a recent cluster along the Pacific Ring of Fire with a M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1, and M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20—traders assign an 80.3% implied probability to eight or more by June 30. This reflects historical baselines of about 16 such events annually worldwide, driven by tectonic plate motions at subduction zones, projecting 2–3 additional quakes in the coming two months amid ongoing seismic release. The 15.8% odds on exactly seven acknowledge inherent unpredictability in earthquake occurrence, with USGS real-time monitoring providing the next key data updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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