Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 30°C on May 1, 2026, driven by official observations from the Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory recording a midday peak of 30°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds around 10-15 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts showing highs capped by 70-80% relative humidity and shallow instability layers, preventing further intensification despite urban heat island effects in central districts like Tianhe. Recent developments include a warmup from April 30's 26°C max amid transitioning monsoon patterns, with no model ensemble (ECMWF, GFS analogs) signaling exceedance. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and subsidence for a late rebound to 31°C, though evening cooling and possible showers make this improbable; final station data releases tonight will resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Guangzhou el 1 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Guangzhou el 1 de mayo?
30°C 100.0%
31°C <1%
32°C o más <1%
$38,074 Vol.
$38,074 Vol.
1 may 2026
30°C
100%
31°C
<1%
32°C o más
<1%
30°C 100.0%
31°C <1%
32°C o más <1%
$38,074 Vol.
$38,074 Vol.
1 may 2026
30°C
$6,072 Vol.
100%
31°C
$5,379 Vol.
<1%
32°C o más
$6,309 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 30°C on May 1, 2026, driven by official observations from the Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory recording a midday peak of 30°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds around 10-15 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts showing highs capped by 70-80% relative humidity and shallow instability layers, preventing further intensification despite urban heat island effects in central districts like Tianhe. Recent developments include a warmup from April 30's 26°C max amid transitioning monsoon patterns, with no model ensemble (ECMWF, GFS analogs) signaling exceedance. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and subsidence for a late rebound to 31°C, though evening cooling and possible showers make this improbable; final station data releases tonight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volumen
$38,074Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 30°C on May 1, 2026, driven by official observations from the Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory recording a midday peak of 30°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds around 10-15 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts showing highs capped by 70-80% relative humidity and shallow instability layers, preventing further intensification despite urban heat island effects in central districts like Tianhe. Recent developments include a warmup from April 30's 26°C max amid transitioning monsoon patterns, with no model ensemble (ECMWF, GFS analogs) signaling exceedance. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and subsidence for a late rebound to 31°C, though evening cooling and possible showers make this improbable; final station data releases tonight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$38,074Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 30°C on May 1, 2026, driven by official observations from the Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory recording a midday peak of 30°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds around 10-15 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts showing highs capped by 70-80% relative humidity and shallow instability layers, preventing further intensification despite urban heat island effects in central districts like Tianhe. Recent developments include a warmup from April 30's 26°C max amid transitioning monsoon patterns, with no model ensemble (ECMWF, GFS analogs) signaling exceedance. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and subsidence for a late rebound to 31°C, though evening cooling and possible showers make this improbable; final station data releases tonight will resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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