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Strait Of Hormuz predictions & odds

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

<1%

$35M Vol.

$1M today

$500K Liq.

3

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

15%

June 30

$39M Vol.

$796K today

$499K Liq.

388

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

39%

May 31

$9M Vol.

$343K today

$357K Liq.

267

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

6%

$3M Vol.

$340K today

$428K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

19%

$4M Vol.

$273K today

$442K Liq.

Ends in 30 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

48%

$1M Vol.

$109K today

$245K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

4%

$364K Vol.

$44.1K Liq.

34

Ends in 30 days

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

16%

$40.2K Vol.

$90.5K Liq.

Ends in 30 days

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

16%

May 31

$2M Vol.

$55.1K Liq.

85

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?

63%

25-49

$35.8K Vol.

$95.9K Liq.

Ends in 1 day

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

<1%

80+

$1M Vol.

$37.2K Liq.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

59%

20+

$7.3K Vol.

$17.6K Liq.

Ends in 30 days

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

24%

Oil Sanction Relief

$23.0K Vol.

$115K Liq.

Ends in 30 days

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

98%

0-10

$218K Vol.

$56.8K Liq.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?

42%

25-49

$1.1K Vol.

$103K Liq.

Ends in 9 days

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

53%

0-10

$125 Vol.

$63.8K Liq.

Ends in 30 days

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 16 active markets for Strait Of Hormuz that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $96.6M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 14% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Strait Of Hormuz predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.