Skip to main content
icon for OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?
Politics·OPEC

OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?

icon for OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?
Politics·OPEC

OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?

NEW
Jun 11, 2026
Polymarket

$669 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for 18 Million

18 Million

$90 Vol.

73%

icon for 19 Million

19 Million

$141 Vol.

67%

icon for 20 Million

20 Million

$125 Vol.

40%

icon for 21 Million

21 Million

$313 Vol.

30%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026 The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered. If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.The United Arab Emirates' recent announcement to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, eliminates roughly 3.4 million barrels per day—about 15% of current OPEC capacity—from official group totals, exerting downward pressure on May crude oil production amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and supply shortfalls from the Iran conflict that have already slashed regional output by up to 15 million bpd. On April 5, eight OPEC+ members agreed to raise quotas by a symbolic 206,000 bpd for May, extending phased reversal of 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts implemented since April 2025. Traders monitor monthly conformity meetings, member compliance, and geopolitical risks for potential adjustments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026

The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution.

Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.

If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.

Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$669
End Date
Jun 11, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026 The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered. If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026 The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered. If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.The United Arab Emirates' recent announcement to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, eliminates roughly 3.4 million barrels per day—about 15% of current OPEC capacity—from official group totals, exerting downward pressure on May crude oil production amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and supply shortfalls from the Iran conflict that have already slashed regional output by up to 15 million bpd. On April 5, eight OPEC+ members agreed to raise quotas by a symbolic 206,000 bpd for May, extending phased reversal of 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts implemented since April 2025. Traders monitor monthly conformity meetings, member compliance, and geopolitical risks for potential adjustments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026

The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution.

Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.

If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.

Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$669
End Date
Jun 11, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026 The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered. If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "18 Million" at 73%, followed by "19 Million" at 67%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?" is "18 Million" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "19 Million" at 67%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.