Polymarket traders price an 18% implied probability for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait becoming effectively closed—defined as IMF PortWatch 7-day average ship arrivals ≤10—by May 31, with April 30 odds at 0%, reflecting sustained traffic around 30-35 vessels amid Houthi veto power over Western ships but passage for approved nations. Recent escalations, including April 19 Houthi threats and Iranian vows to activate proxies in response to the U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade, have driven Brent crude volatility to $120/bbl peaks, while Drewry World Container Index holds near $2,230/40ft from Asia-Europe rerouting surcharges. Upcoming U.S. policy signals and Houthi actions could shift sentiment, amplifying supply chain costs and inflation pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
$2,288,256 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 30
<1%
May 31
16%
$2,288,256 Vol.
April 30
$1,615,076 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$342,868 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Polymarket traders price an 18% implied probability for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait becoming effectively closed—defined as IMF PortWatch 7-day average ship arrivals ≤10—by May 31, with April 30 odds at 0%, reflecting sustained traffic around 30-35 vessels amid Houthi veto power over Western ships but passage for approved nations. Recent escalations, including April 19 Houthi threats and Iranian vows to activate proxies in response to the U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade, have driven Brent crude volatility to $120/bbl peaks, while Drewry World Container Index holds near $2,230/40ft from Asia-Europe rerouting surcharges. Upcoming U.S. policy signals and Houthi actions could shift sentiment, amplifying supply chain costs and inflation pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$2,288,256End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Polymarket traders price an 18% implied probability for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait becoming effectively closed—defined as IMF PortWatch 7-day average ship arrivals ≤10—by May 31, with April 30 odds at 0%, reflecting sustained traffic around 30-35 vessels amid Houthi veto power over Western ships but passage for approved nations. Recent escalations, including April 19 Houthi threats and Iranian vows to activate proxies in response to the U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade, have driven Brent crude volatility to $120/bbl peaks, while Drewry World Container Index holds near $2,230/40ft from Asia-Europe rerouting surcharges. Upcoming U.S. policy signals and Houthi actions could shift sentiment, amplifying supply chain costs and inflation pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Volume
$2,288,256End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price an 18% implied probability for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait becoming effectively closed—defined as IMF PortWatch 7-day average ship arrivals ≤10—by May 31, with April 30 odds at 0%, reflecting sustained traffic around 30-35 vessels amid Houthi veto power over Western ships but passage for approved nations. Recent escalations, including April 19 Houthi threats and Iranian vows to activate proxies in response to the U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade, have driven Brent crude volatility to $120/bbl peaks, while Drewry World Container Index holds near $2,230/40ft from Asia-Europe rerouting surcharges. Upcoming U.S. policy signals and Houthi actions could shift sentiment, amplifying supply chain costs and inflation pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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