Trader consensus on Iran leadership change reflects persistent uncertainty surrounding new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei after the latter's death in late February 2026 amid US-Israeli airstrikes. Intelligence leaks and diplomatic memos reported in early April claim Mojtaba suffered severe injuries—facial disfigurement, leg surgeries, and possible coma—leaving him incapacitated in Qom and communicating via notes or audio, with IRGC generals and the Supreme National Security Council exercising de facto control in a collective wartime setup. No public appearances since March fuel speculation of power struggles or AI-simulated statements. Traders eye upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks, potential Assembly of Experts intervention, and escalation risks that could force another transition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,400,069 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 30
1%
May 31
14%
June 30
20%
December 31
41%
$12,400,069 Vol.
April 30
$5,175,942 Vol.
1%
May 31
$1,214,010 Vol.
14%
June 30
$732,101 Vol.
20%
December 31
$2,047,094 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Iran leadership change reflects persistent uncertainty surrounding new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei after the latter's death in late February 2026 amid US-Israeli airstrikes. Intelligence leaks and diplomatic memos reported in early April claim Mojtaba suffered severe injuries—facial disfigurement, leg surgeries, and possible coma—leaving him incapacitated in Qom and communicating via notes or audio, with IRGC generals and the Supreme National Security Council exercising de facto control in a collective wartime setup. No public appearances since March fuel speculation of power struggles or AI-simulated statements. Traders eye upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks, potential Assembly of Experts intervention, and escalation risks that could force another transition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volume
$12,400,069End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Iran leadership change reflects persistent uncertainty surrounding new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei after the latter's death in late February 2026 amid US-Israeli airstrikes. Intelligence leaks and diplomatic memos reported in early April claim Mojtaba suffered severe injuries—facial disfigurement, leg surgeries, and possible coma—leaving him incapacitated in Qom and communicating via notes or audio, with IRGC generals and the Supreme National Security Council exercising de facto control in a collective wartime setup. No public appearances since March fuel speculation of power struggles or AI-simulated statements. Traders eye upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks, potential Assembly of Experts intervention, and escalation risks that could force another transition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,400,069End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Iran leadership change reflects persistent uncertainty surrounding new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei after the latter's death in late February 2026 amid US-Israeli airstrikes. Intelligence leaks and diplomatic memos reported in early April claim Mojtaba suffered severe injuries—facial disfigurement, leg surgeries, and possible coma—leaving him incapacitated in Qom and communicating via notes or audio, with IRGC generals and the Supreme National Security Council exercising de facto control in a collective wartime setup. No public appearances since March fuel speculation of power struggles or AI-simulated statements. Traders eye upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks, potential Assembly of Experts intervention, and escalation risks that could force another transition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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