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icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Petro - Colombia President 19%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 17%

Starmer - UK PM 16%

Abbas - President of Palestine 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Petro - Colombia President 19%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 17%

Starmer - UK PM 16%

Abbas - President of Palestine 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Petro - Colombia President

$179 Vol.

27%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$202 Vol.

17%

Starmer - UK PM

$506 Vol.

16%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$150 Vol.

23%

None before 2027

$952 Vol.

7%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$173 Vol.

13%

Trump - USA President

$323 Vol.

6%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$123 Vol.

6%

Putin - Russia President

$107 Vol.

6%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$112 Vol.

5%

Macron - France President

$123 Vol.

8%

Milei - Argentina President

$112 Vol.

20%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$123 Vol.

11%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$112 Vol.

13%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$112 Vol.

18%

Albanese - Australia PM

$112 Vol.

20%

Newsom - California Governor

$123 Vol.

12%

Lecornu - France PM

$112 Vol.

21%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$112 Vol.

20%

Merz - German Chancellor

$112 Vol.

12%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$112 Vol.

16%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$112 Vol.

16%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$93 Vol.

6%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$112 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a fragmented risk landscape where Colombia's President Petro leads narrowly at 26.5% implied probability of exiting power prematurely before 2027, driven by an April intelligence chief resignation exposing institutional instability amid court clashes and term-end pressures ahead of May presidential elections. Close challengers include Palestinian Authority President Abbas (21.5%), bolstered yet vulnerable after loyalists swept April local elections without a presidential vote; French Prime Minister Lecornu (20.8%), who survived February no-confidence votes to pass the 2026 budget via Article 49.3 in a fragile coalition; and Argentina's President Milei (19.5%), whose approval plunged below 37% on rising unemployment and corruption scandals. The tight cluster stems from parallel crises—low approval ratings, coalition strains, and geopolitical pressures—lacking a decisive catalyst, with escalation like failed legislative votes, impeachment probes, or health events for figures such as Zelenskyy or Netanyahu potentially creating separation before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,404
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a fragmented risk landscape where Colombia's President Petro leads narrowly at 26.5% implied probability of exiting power prematurely before 2027, driven by an April intelligence chief resignation exposing institutional instability amid court clashes and term-end pressures ahead of May presidential elections. Close challengers include Palestinian Authority President Abbas (21.5%), bolstered yet vulnerable after loyalists swept April local elections without a presidential vote; French Prime Minister Lecornu (20.8%), who survived February no-confidence votes to pass the 2026 budget via Article 49.3 in a fragile coalition; and Argentina's President Milei (19.5%), whose approval plunged below 37% on rising unemployment and corruption scandals. The tight cluster stems from parallel crises—low approval ratings, coalition strains, and geopolitical pressures—lacking a decisive catalyst, with escalation like failed legislative votes, impeachment probes, or health events for figures such as Zelenskyy or Netanyahu potentially creating separation before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,404
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Petro - Colombia President" at 27%, followed by "Abbas - President of Palestine" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is "Petro - Colombia President" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abbas - President of Palestine" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.