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Politics·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politics·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Petro - Colombia President 56%

Starmer - UK PM 27%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.0%

None before 2027 1.9%

Polymarket

$823,212 Vol.

Petro - Colombia President 56%

Starmer - UK PM 27%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.0%

None before 2027 1.9%

Polymarket

$823,212 Vol.

Petro - Colombia President

$116,865 Vol.

56%

Starmer - UK PM

$48,534 Vol.

27%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$30,374 Vol.

9%

None before 2027

$49,235 Vol.

2%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$34,229 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$39,188 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$32,503 Vol.

1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$32,616 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$33,892 Vol.

<1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$26,428 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$21,436 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$22,326 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$27,573 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$27,784 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$23,594 Vol.

<1%

Lecornu - France PM

$27,828 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$27,980 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$28,683 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$26,585 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$24,652 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$28,523 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$28,193 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$32,504 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$31,879 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro leads trader consensus at 56.5% due to Colombia’s constitutional one-term limit, with his presidency scheduled to end in August 2026 following the May-June runoff and transition to a successor. Recent legislative proposals to suspend him temporarily amid campaign-related investigations represent short-term political maneuvers rather than structural changes to the handover timeline. Keir Starmer trails at 26.5% amid sustained net favorability ratings near -46, Labour’s weak May 2026 local election results, and growing internal party pressure for leadership change before the next general election. Lower probabilities for figures such as Miguel Díaz-Canel reflect stable institutional positions and recent reform announcements without immediate removal catalysts, while most other listed leaders face longer terms or limited near-term political vulnerabilities before 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$823,212
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro leads trader consensus at 56.5% due to Colombia’s constitutional one-term limit, with his presidency scheduled to end in August 2026 following the May-June runoff and transition to a successor. Recent legislative proposals to suspend him temporarily amid campaign-related investigations represent short-term political maneuvers rather than structural changes to the handover timeline. Keir Starmer trails at 26.5% amid sustained net favorability ratings near -46, Labour’s weak May 2026 local election results, and growing internal party pressure for leadership change before the next general election. Lower probabilities for figures such as Miguel Díaz-Canel reflect stable institutional positions and recent reform announcements without immediate removal catalysts, while most other listed leaders face longer terms or limited near-term political vulnerabilities before 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$823,212
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Petro - Colombia President" at 56%, followed by "Starmer - UK PM" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" has generated $823.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is "Petro - Colombia President" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Starmer - UK PM" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.