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Ukraine predictions & odds

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

12%

$7M Vol.

$455K today

$195K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

8%

$1M Vol.

$385K today

$76.5K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

<1%

$9M Vol.

$252K today

$75.6K Liq.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

26%

$15M Vol.

$478K Liq.

5,422

Ends in 8 months

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

3%

June 30, 2026

$4M Vol.

$28.6K Liq.

59

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

80%

December 31, 2026

$6M Vol.

$25.0K Liq.

433

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

23%

December 31

$2M Vol.

$65.9K Liq.

34

Ends in 8 months

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

12%

$4M Vol.

$208K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

55%

$163K Vol.

$114K Liq.

Ends in over 1 year

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

92%

No meeting by June 30

$5M Vol.

$201K Liq.

22

Ends in 2 months

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

11%

December 31

$5M Vol.

$203K Liq.

69

Ends in 8 months

Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?

Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?

3%

May 31

$100K Vol.

$11.4K Liq.

4

Ends in about 1 month

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

60%

December 31

$2M Vol.

$23.5K Liq.

93

Ends in 8 months

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

3%

$1M Vol.

$80.4K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?

38%

July 31

$268K Vol.

$8.3K Liq.

21

Ends in 3 months

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...?

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...?

99%

April 30

$59.1K Vol.

$3.9K Liq.

22

Ends in about 1 month

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?

71%

May 31

$90.1K Vol.

$5.6K Liq.

11

Ends in about 1 month

Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?

Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?

63%

June 30

$119K Vol.

$11.3K Liq.

2

Ends in about 1 month

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?

34%

May 31

$809K Vol.

$4.9K Liq.

346

Ends in about 1 month

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by...?

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by...?

99%

April 30

$24.5K Vol.

$8.9K Liq.

5

Ends in about 1 month

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Ukraine.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Ukraine that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $64.4M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 75% chance to No. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Ukraine predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.