Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Name: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
Start: 2026-03-24T17:08:11.129Z
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Geopolitics·Traffic

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Apr 30

0-10 98.2%

10-20 1.8%

40-50 <1%

20-30 <1%

$230,983 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026

0-10

$66,909 Vol.

98%

10-20

$30,758 Vol.

20-30

$20,073 Vol.

<1%

30-40

$14,264 Vol.

<1%

40-50

$16,330 Vol.

<1%

50-60

$20,076 Vol.

<1%

60+

$62,574 Vol.

<1%

0-10 98.2%

10-20 1.8%

40-50 <1%

20-30 <1%

$230,983 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026

0-10

$66,909 Vol.

98%

10-20

$30,758 Vol.

20-30

$20,073 Vol.

<1%

30-40

$14,264 Vol.

<1%

40-50

$16,330 Vol.

<1%

50-60

$20,076 Vol.

<1%

60+

$62,574 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0-10" at 98%, followed by "10-20" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" has generated $231K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" is "0-10" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "10-20" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $231K traded on “Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 98¢ for "0-10" in the "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 98% chance that "0-10" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 98¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 2¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

The "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" market has an active community of 33 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Comments (33)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?"?

What are the current odds for "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?"?

How will "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?"?

What does a price of 98¢ for "0-10" mean?

When does the "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?" market close?

What are traders saying about "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?"?

What is Polymarket?