The United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 of its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—citing a strategic shift to prioritize national production interests amid Iran war disruptions—marks the first exit of 2026, but trader consensus prices "No" at 66.5% for another departure, reflecting swift reaffirmations of commitment from key members like Russia, Algeria, and Kazakhstan. No other producers, including quota-disciplined Saudi Arabia or underperformers like Nigeria and Iraq, have signaled exits despite historical precedents like Angola's 2023 departure over production limits. Ongoing OPEC+ output cuts and Hormuz Strait tensions sustain alliance cohesion, with analysts noting high barriers to further ruptures absent escalated quota disputes or market crashes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
NEW
$89,621 Vol.
NEW
$89,621 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
$89,621 Vol.
NEW
$89,621 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 of its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—citing a strategic shift to prioritize national production interests amid Iran war disruptions—marks the first exit of 2026, but trader consensus prices "No" at 66.5% for another departure, reflecting swift reaffirmations of commitment from key members like Russia, Algeria, and Kazakhstan. No other producers, including quota-disciplined Saudi Arabia or underperformers like Nigeria and Iraq, have signaled exits despite historical precedents like Angola's 2023 departure over production limits. Ongoing OPEC+ output cuts and Hormuz Strait tensions sustain alliance cohesion, with analysts noting high barriers to further ruptures absent escalated quota disputes or market crashes.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$89,621End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 of its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—citing a strategic shift to prioritize national production interests amid Iran war disruptions—marks the first exit of 2026, but trader consensus prices "No" at 66.5% for another departure, reflecting swift reaffirmations of commitment from key members like Russia, Algeria, and Kazakhstan. No other producers, including quota-disciplined Saudi Arabia or underperformers like Nigeria and Iraq, have signaled exits despite historical precedents like Angola's 2023 departure over production limits. Ongoing OPEC+ output cuts and Hormuz Strait tensions sustain alliance cohesion, with analysts noting high barriers to further ruptures absent escalated quota disputes or market crashes.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$89,680End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 of its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—citing a strategic shift to prioritize national production interests amid Iran war disruptions—marks the first exit of 2026, but trader consensus prices "No" at 66.5% for another departure, reflecting swift reaffirmations of commitment from key members like Russia, Algeria, and Kazakhstan. No other producers, including quota-disciplined Saudi Arabia or underperformers like Nigeria and Iraq, have signaled exits despite historical precedents like Angola's 2023 departure over production limits. Ongoing OPEC+ output cuts and Hormuz Strait tensions sustain alliance cohesion, with analysts noting high barriers to further ruptures absent escalated quota disputes or market crashes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions