The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, stands as the dominant recent development shaping trader views, driven by disputes over production quotas and a desire to prioritize independent output expansion amid the regional energy disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz constraints. No other member has signaled an exit since, and OPEC+ has proceeded with modest, coordinated production adjustments without further fragmentation. Remaining producers continue quota adherence or exemptions tied to ongoing conflicts, with no new diplomatic announcements or quota clashes reported in the past month that would indicate accelerated departures. This recent stabilization underpins the current 73% implied probability against an additional exit before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
$105,585 Vol.
$105,585 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$105,585 Vol.
$105,585 Vol.
31 dic 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, stands as the dominant recent development shaping trader views, driven by disputes over production quotas and a desire to prioritize independent output expansion amid the regional energy disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz constraints. No other member has signaled an exit since, and OPEC+ has proceeded with modest, coordinated production adjustments without further fragmentation. Remaining producers continue quota adherence or exemptions tied to ongoing conflicts, with no new diplomatic announcements or quota clashes reported in the past month that would indicate accelerated departures. This recent stabilization underpins the current 73% implied probability against an additional exit before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volumen
$105,585Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, stands as the dominant recent development shaping trader views, driven by disputes over production quotas and a desire to prioritize independent output expansion amid the regional energy disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz constraints. No other member has signaled an exit since, and OPEC+ has proceeded with modest, coordinated production adjustments without further fragmentation. Remaining producers continue quota adherence or exemptions tied to ongoing conflicts, with no new diplomatic announcements or quota clashes reported in the past month that would indicate accelerated departures. This recent stabilization underpins the current 73% implied probability against an additional exit before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$105,585Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, stands as the dominant recent development shaping trader views, driven by disputes over production quotas and a desire to prioritize independent output expansion amid the regional energy disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz constraints. No other member has signaled an exit since, and OPEC+ has proceeded with modest, coordinated production adjustments without further fragmentation. Remaining producers continue quota adherence or exemptions tied to ongoing conflicts, with no new diplomatic announcements or quota clashes reported in the past month that would indicate accelerated departures. This recent stabilization underpins the current 73% implied probability against an additional exit before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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