Trader consensus prices "No" at 83.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by May 31, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's firm insistence on its right to enrich. Recent Institute for the Study of War reports from April 27-28 detail Iran's latest proposal offering no concessions on highly enriched uranium stockpiles or enrichment capabilities, rejecting US demands to dismantle its program. IAEA verification remains limited, with ongoing concerns over Iran's 60% enriched uranium accumulation near weapons-grade levels. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs before the deadline, traders see significant barriers in Iran's non-negotiable stance and lack of progress in Oman-mediated talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
NEW
$66,776 Vol.
NEW
$66,776 Vol.
May 31, 2026
NEW
$66,776 Vol.
NEW
$66,776 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 83.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by May 31, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's firm insistence on its right to enrich. Recent Institute for the Study of War reports from April 27-28 detail Iran's latest proposal offering no concessions on highly enriched uranium stockpiles or enrichment capabilities, rejecting US demands to dismantle its program. IAEA verification remains limited, with ongoing concerns over Iran's 60% enriched uranium accumulation near weapons-grade levels. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs before the deadline, traders see significant barriers in Iran's non-negotiable stance and lack of progress in Oman-mediated talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volume
$66,776End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 83.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by May 31, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's firm insistence on its right to enrich. Recent Institute for the Study of War reports from April 27-28 detail Iran's latest proposal offering no concessions on highly enriched uranium stockpiles or enrichment capabilities, rejecting US demands to dismantle its program. IAEA verification remains limited, with ongoing concerns over Iran's 60% enriched uranium accumulation near weapons-grade levels. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs before the deadline, traders see significant barriers in Iran's non-negotiable stance and lack of progress in Oman-mediated talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$66,958End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 83.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by May 31, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's firm insistence on its right to enrich. Recent Institute for the Study of War reports from April 27-28 detail Iran's latest proposal offering no concessions on highly enriched uranium stockpiles or enrichment capabilities, rejecting US demands to dismantle its program. IAEA verification remains limited, with ongoing concerns over Iran's 60% enriched uranium accumulation near weapons-grade levels. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs before the deadline, traders see significant barriers in Iran's non-negotiable stance and lack of progress in Oman-mediated talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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