Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism of a comprehensive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, driven by stalled peace talks and persistent military escalations despite short tactical pauses. On April 30, Russia announced a unilateral one-day truce for its May 9 Victory Day parade, which President Zelenskyy dismissed as insufficient without Kyiv's consent or long-term civilian protections, echoing mutual violations during the April 10-12 Orthodox Easter ceasefire. President Trump's recent phone call with Putin discussed a possible truce but yielded no breakthroughs, amid reports of the US ambassador to Ukraine departing over negotiation frustrations. Ongoing Russian drone and missile strikes, stalled offensives, and unresolved issues like front-line freezes reinforce barriers to de-escalation within the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
$1,393,404 Vol.
$1,393,404 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$1,393,404 Vol.
$1,393,404 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism of a comprehensive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, driven by stalled peace talks and persistent military escalations despite short tactical pauses. On April 30, Russia announced a unilateral one-day truce for its May 9 Victory Day parade, which President Zelenskyy dismissed as insufficient without Kyiv's consent or long-term civilian protections, echoing mutual violations during the April 10-12 Orthodox Easter ceasefire. President Trump's recent phone call with Putin discussed a possible truce but yielded no breakthroughs, amid reports of the US ambassador to Ukraine departing over negotiation frustrations. Ongoing Russian drone and missile strikes, stalled offensives, and unresolved issues like front-line freezes reinforce barriers to de-escalation within the month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Volume
$1,393,404End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism of a comprehensive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, driven by stalled peace talks and persistent military escalations despite short tactical pauses. On April 30, Russia announced a unilateral one-day truce for its May 9 Victory Day parade, which President Zelenskyy dismissed as insufficient without Kyiv's consent or long-term civilian protections, echoing mutual violations during the April 10-12 Orthodox Easter ceasefire. President Trump's recent phone call with Putin discussed a possible truce but yielded no breakthroughs, amid reports of the US ambassador to Ukraine departing over negotiation frustrations. Ongoing Russian drone and missile strikes, stalled offensives, and unresolved issues like front-line freezes reinforce barriers to de-escalation within the month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$1,485,609End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism of a comprehensive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, driven by stalled peace talks and persistent military escalations despite short tactical pauses. On April 30, Russia announced a unilateral one-day truce for its May 9 Victory Day parade, which President Zelenskyy dismissed as insufficient without Kyiv's consent or long-term civilian protections, echoing mutual violations during the April 10-12 Orthodox Easter ceasefire. President Trump's recent phone call with Putin discussed a possible truce but yielded no breakthroughs, amid reports of the US ambassador to Ukraine departing over negotiation frustrations. Ongoing Russian drone and missile strikes, stalled offensives, and unresolved issues like front-line freezes reinforce barriers to de-escalation within the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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