Trader consensus prices a 52% chance of President Trump announcing the end of U.S. military operations against Iran—initiated February 28—by June 30, with 27% for May 31 and near-zero for today, reflecting no qualifying public statement amid ongoing naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Recent diplomatic momentum, including U.S. review of an Iranian peace plan to halt hostilities and reopen the strait two days ago, plus Trump's discussions of proposals demanding uranium handover, has boosted later-date odds despite yesterday's CENTCOM briefing on potential new strikes signaling escalation risks. Earlier ceasefires were extended but not deemed conclusive, as economic pressure tactics persist until a nuclear deal; upcoming negotiations or Senate defense hearings could tip probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
$44,056,191 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 30
1%
May 31
26%
June 30
52%
$44,056,191 Vol.
April 30
$15,448,296 Vol.
1%
May 31
$1,900,750 Vol.
26%
June 30
$2,888,429 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 52% chance of President Trump announcing the end of U.S. military operations against Iran—initiated February 28—by June 30, with 27% for May 31 and near-zero for today, reflecting no qualifying public statement amid ongoing naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Recent diplomatic momentum, including U.S. review of an Iranian peace plan to halt hostilities and reopen the strait two days ago, plus Trump's discussions of proposals demanding uranium handover, has boosted later-date odds despite yesterday's CENTCOM briefing on potential new strikes signaling escalation risks. Earlier ceasefires were extended but not deemed conclusive, as economic pressure tactics persist until a nuclear deal; upcoming negotiations or Senate defense hearings could tip probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$44,056,191End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 52% chance of President Trump announcing the end of U.S. military operations against Iran—initiated February 28—by June 30, with 27% for May 31 and near-zero for today, reflecting no qualifying public statement amid ongoing naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Recent diplomatic momentum, including U.S. review of an Iranian peace plan to halt hostilities and reopen the strait two days ago, plus Trump's discussions of proposals demanding uranium handover, has boosted later-date odds despite yesterday's CENTCOM briefing on potential new strikes signaling escalation risks. Earlier ceasefires were extended but not deemed conclusive, as economic pressure tactics persist until a nuclear deal; upcoming negotiations or Senate defense hearings could tip probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$44,056,191End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 52% chance of President Trump announcing the end of U.S. military operations against Iran—initiated February 28—by June 30, with 27% for May 31 and near-zero for today, reflecting no qualifying public statement amid ongoing naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Recent diplomatic momentum, including U.S. review of an Iranian peace plan to halt hostilities and reopen the strait two days ago, plus Trump's discussions of proposals demanding uranium handover, has boosted later-date odds despite yesterday's CENTCOM briefing on potential new strikes signaling escalation risks. Earlier ceasefires were extended but not deemed conclusive, as economic pressure tactics persist until a nuclear deal; upcoming negotiations or Senate defense hearings could tip probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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