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Geopolitics·Rewards 200, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?

icon for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?
Geopolitics·Rewards 200, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?

May 3

May 10

May 3

May 10

25-49 57%

50-74 19%

<25 9%

75-99 6.6%

Polymarket

$42,830 Vol.

25-49 57%

50-74 19%

<25 9%

75-99 6.6%

Polymarket

$42,830 Vol.

<25

$3,934 Vol.

9%

25-49

$15,626 Vol.

57%

50-74

$7,041 Vol.

19%

75-99

$1,347 Vol.

7%

100-124

$5,084 Vol.

1%

125-149

$5,276 Vol.

1%

150+

$4,522 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, reflecting persistent low vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran conflict, mutual blockades, and minefields that have slashed daily crossings from a pre-war average of over 100 to 5-20 vessels. Recent ship-tracking data from Windward shows 20 transits on April 29—six inbound, 14 outbound—yet the seven-day moving average remains around nine, per IMF Portwatch and Kpler analytics, as commercial operators avoid the chokepoint due to heightened risks and elevated insurance premiums. With no ceasefire signals, traders anticipate weekly totals below 75, pricing minimal upside for higher bins absent de-mining progress or diplomatic breakthroughs by May 3 resolution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$42,830
End Date
May 3, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, reflecting persistent low vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran conflict, mutual blockades, and minefields that have slashed daily crossings from a pre-war average of over 100 to 5-20 vessels. Recent ship-tracking data from Windward shows 20 transits on April 29—six inbound, 14 outbound—yet the seven-day moving average remains around nine, per IMF Portwatch and Kpler analytics, as commercial operators avoid the chokepoint due to heightened risks and elevated insurance premiums. With no ceasefire signals, traders anticipate weekly totals below 75, pricing minimal upside for higher bins absent de-mining progress or diplomatic breakthroughs by May 3 resolution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$42,830
End Date
May 3, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25-49" at 57%, followed by "50-74" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?" has generated $42.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?" is "25-49" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50-74" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.