Amid the US-Iran war now in its ninth week, Polymarket traders—backing positions with over $33 million in volume—price a 99.9% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by April 30, driven by a persistent double blockade imposing severe restrictions on commercial shipping. Satellite and tracking data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Windward confirm transits at just 3-13 vessels daily through April 28, versus pre-war norms of 130-140, with over 2,000 ships stranded and no US-Iran deal in sight despite brief selective passages. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects stalled ceasefire talks and heightened geopolitical risk inflating oil volatility, though tail risks like a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral reopening could theoretically shift resolution before IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$35,345,713 Vol.
$35,345,713 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$35,345,713 Vol.
$35,345,713 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the US-Iran war now in its ninth week, Polymarket traders—backing positions with over $33 million in volume—price a 99.9% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by April 30, driven by a persistent double blockade imposing severe restrictions on commercial shipping. Satellite and tracking data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Windward confirm transits at just 3-13 vessels daily through April 28, versus pre-war norms of 130-140, with over 2,000 ships stranded and no US-Iran deal in sight despite brief selective passages. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects stalled ceasefire talks and heightened geopolitical risk inflating oil volatility, though tail risks like a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral reopening could theoretically shift resolution before IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average assessment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volume
$35,345,713End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the US-Iran war now in its ninth week, Polymarket traders—backing positions with over $33 million in volume—price a 99.9% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by April 30, driven by a persistent double blockade imposing severe restrictions on commercial shipping. Satellite and tracking data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Windward confirm transits at just 3-13 vessels daily through April 28, versus pre-war norms of 130-140, with over 2,000 ships stranded and no US-Iran deal in sight despite brief selective passages. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects stalled ceasefire talks and heightened geopolitical risk inflating oil volatility, though tail risks like a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral reopening could theoretically shift resolution before IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average assessment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$35,618,015End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Iran war now in its ninth week, Polymarket traders—backing positions with over $33 million in volume—price a 99.9% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by April 30, driven by a persistent double blockade imposing severe restrictions on commercial shipping. Satellite and tracking data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Windward confirm transits at just 3-13 vessels daily through April 28, versus pre-war norms of 130-140, with over 2,000 ships stranded and no US-Iran deal in sight despite brief selective passages. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects stalled ceasefire talks and heightened geopolitical risk inflating oil volatility, though tail risks like a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral reopening could theoretically shift resolution before IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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