Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, driven by Saudi Arabia's enduring dominance and the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement to exit effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Recent OPEC+ virtual meetings in early April 2026 reaffirmed production adjustments—raising quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May—while underscoring commitment to market stability amid Iran-related supply disruptions and elevated oil prices near $100 per barrel. Historical precedents, including Angola's prior departure, failed to trigger collapse, with sources indicating no imminent cascade of exits; Saudi-led coordination persists to manage global supply amid non-OPEC growth and geopolitical volatility, though a 33% chance of another member leaving adds monitored risk ahead of June policy reviews.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, driven by Saudi Arabia's enduring dominance and the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement to exit effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Recent OPEC+ virtual meetings in early April 2026 reaffirmed production adjustments—raising quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May—while underscoring commitment to market stability amid Iran-related supply disruptions and elevated oil prices near $100 per barrel. Historical precedents, including Angola's prior departure, failed to trigger collapse, with sources indicating no imminent cascade of exits; Saudi-led coordination persists to manage global supply amid non-OPEC growth and geopolitical volatility, though a 33% chance of another member leaving adds monitored risk ahead of June policy reviews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$8,354End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, driven by Saudi Arabia's enduring dominance and the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement to exit effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Recent OPEC+ virtual meetings in early April 2026 reaffirmed production adjustments—raising quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May—while underscoring commitment to market stability amid Iran-related supply disruptions and elevated oil prices near $100 per barrel. Historical precedents, including Angola's prior departure, failed to trigger collapse, with sources indicating no imminent cascade of exits; Saudi-led coordination persists to manage global supply amid non-OPEC growth and geopolitical volatility, though a 33% chance of another member leaving adds monitored risk ahead of June policy reviews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,354End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, driven by Saudi Arabia's enduring dominance and the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement to exit effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Recent OPEC+ virtual meetings in early April 2026 reaffirmed production adjustments—raising quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May—while underscoring commitment to market stability amid Iran-related supply disruptions and elevated oil prices near $100 per barrel. Historical precedents, including Angola's prior departure, failed to trigger collapse, with sources indicating no imminent cascade of exits; Saudi-led coordination persists to manage global supply amid non-OPEC growth and geopolitical volatility, though a 33% chance of another member leaving adds monitored risk ahead of June policy reviews.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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