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Geopolitics·Rewards 200, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?

icon for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?
Geopolitics·Rewards 200, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?

May 3

May 10

May 3

May 10

25-49 41%

50-74 37%

<25 12%

75-99 7%

Polymarket
NEW

25-49 41%

50-74 37%

<25 12%

75-99 7%

Polymarket
NEW

<25

$151 Vol.

12%

25-49

$479 Vol.

41%

50-74

$173 Vol.

37%

75-99

$132 Vol.

7%

100+

$135 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for the week of May 4 remains tightly contested between 50-74 vessels at 37.5% and 25-49 at 36.5%, mirroring volatile recent maritime traffic amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict and mutual blockades. Daily crossings have fluctuated between 5-20 ships in late April—peaking at 20 on April 29 per Windward data after a 35-vessel week of April 20-26—down sharply from pre-war averages of 100-140, due to Iranian toll corridors, shadow fleet dominance, and elevated risks from naval presence and threats. Separation could arise from diplomatic progress on Iran's April 27 reopening proposal, accepted by US negotiators, or further escalation like mine deployments, with live trackers like Lloyd's List Intelligence determining final counts.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$1,070
End Date
May 10, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for the week of May 4 remains tightly contested between 50-74 vessels at 37.5% and 25-49 at 36.5%, mirroring volatile recent maritime traffic amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict and mutual blockades. Daily crossings have fluctuated between 5-20 ships in late April—peaking at 20 on April 29 per Windward data after a 35-vessel week of April 20-26—down sharply from pre-war averages of 100-140, due to Iranian toll corridors, shadow fleet dominance, and elevated risks from naval presence and threats. Separation could arise from diplomatic progress on Iran's April 27 reopening proposal, accepted by US negotiators, or further escalation like mine deployments, with live trackers like Lloyd's List Intelligence determining final counts.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$1,070
End Date
May 10, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25-49" at 41%, followed by "50-74" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?" is "25-49" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50-74" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.