Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.7% implied probability for Venezuela becoming the 51st U.S. state, reflecting dismissal of President Trump's March 2026 Truth Social post as hyperbolic jest tied to Venezuela's World Baseball Classic semifinal victory over Italy—later winning the final against the U.S.—with no subsequent official actions, diplomatic initiatives, or legislative proposals from the White House or Congress. Structural barriers dominate sentiment: U.S. Constitution Article IV mandates congressional approval for new states, typically from territories with resident consent via referendum, while Venezuela remains a sovereign nation under Nicolás Maduro's regime amid ongoing sanctions and political crisis, rendering annexation diplomatically untenable without regime change, improbable invasion, or bilateral treaty—scenarios unseen in recent developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Venezuela become 51st state?
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
$138,454 Vol.
$138,454 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$138,454 Vol.
$138,454 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.7% implied probability for Venezuela becoming the 51st U.S. state, reflecting dismissal of President Trump's March 2026 Truth Social post as hyperbolic jest tied to Venezuela's World Baseball Classic semifinal victory over Italy—later winning the final against the U.S.—with no subsequent official actions, diplomatic initiatives, or legislative proposals from the White House or Congress. Structural barriers dominate sentiment: U.S. Constitution Article IV mandates congressional approval for new states, typically from territories with resident consent via referendum, while Venezuela remains a sovereign nation under Nicolás Maduro's regime amid ongoing sanctions and political crisis, rendering annexation diplomatically untenable without regime change, improbable invasion, or bilateral treaty—scenarios unseen in recent developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 7:18 PM ET
Volume
$138,454End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.7% implied probability for Venezuela becoming the 51st U.S. state, reflecting dismissal of President Trump's March 2026 Truth Social post as hyperbolic jest tied to Venezuela's World Baseball Classic semifinal victory over Italy—later winning the final against the U.S.—with no subsequent official actions, diplomatic initiatives, or legislative proposals from the White House or Congress. Structural barriers dominate sentiment: U.S. Constitution Article IV mandates congressional approval for new states, typically from territories with resident consent via referendum, while Venezuela remains a sovereign nation under Nicolás Maduro's regime amid ongoing sanctions and political crisis, rendering annexation diplomatically untenable without regime change, improbable invasion, or bilateral treaty—scenarios unseen in recent developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$138,454End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.7% implied probability for Venezuela becoming the 51st U.S. state, reflecting dismissal of President Trump's March 2026 Truth Social post as hyperbolic jest tied to Venezuela's World Baseball Classic semifinal victory over Italy—later winning the final against the U.S.—with no subsequent official actions, diplomatic initiatives, or legislative proposals from the White House or Congress. Structural barriers dominate sentiment: U.S. Constitution Article IV mandates congressional approval for new states, typically from territories with resident consent via referendum, while Venezuela remains a sovereign nation under Nicolás Maduro's regime amid ongoing sanctions and political crisis, rendering annexation diplomatically untenable without regime change, improbable invasion, or bilateral treaty—scenarios unseen in recent developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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