The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's July 8 Monetary Policy Review carries an 82.5% market-implied probability of an Official Cash Rate increase from the current 2.25% level, reflecting the hawkish pivot in the May 27 Monetary Policy Statement. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated near-term inflation risks, with March-quarter CPI holding at 3.1% year-over-year and projections now showing a peak near 4.3% by September amid higher fuel and input costs. The RBNZ explicitly noted that tighter policy would likely be required sooner than the prior February path, prompting economists and swap markets to price the first 25-basis-point hike for July rather than later in the year. Limited new economic data releases between now and the decision leave the consensus intact, though any softer inflation prints or weaker growth signals could still shift the closely watched 16% no-change probability.