Recent diplomatic momentum under President Trump has elevated trader expectations for a US-Iran agreement before 2027. Following US and Israeli strikes in February 2026 and a subsequent temporary ceasefire, negotiations resumed with mediators involved, producing reports in May of a near-final memorandum of understanding that includes sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and limits on Iran's nuclear program such as destruction of enriched uranium stockpiles. As of mid-June 2026, Trump has publicly indicated an imminent signing, with technical details on enrichment and verification still under discussion. This sequence of ceasefires, bilateral talks, and concrete proposals on nuclear restrictions explains the strong implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$2,239,584 Vol.
$2,239,584 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$2,239,584 Vol.
$2,239,584 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum under President Trump has elevated trader expectations for a US-Iran agreement before 2027. Following US and Israeli strikes in February 2026 and a subsequent temporary ceasefire, negotiations resumed with mediators involved, producing reports in May of a near-final memorandum of understanding that includes sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and limits on Iran's nuclear program such as destruction of enriched uranium stockpiles. As of mid-June 2026, Trump has publicly indicated an imminent signing, with technical details on enrichment and verification still under discussion. This sequence of ceasefires, bilateral talks, and concrete proposals on nuclear restrictions explains the strong implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volumen
$2,239,584Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum under President Trump has elevated trader expectations for a US-Iran agreement before 2027. Following US and Israeli strikes in February 2026 and a subsequent temporary ceasefire, negotiations resumed with mediators involved, producing reports in May of a near-final memorandum of understanding that includes sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and limits on Iran's nuclear program such as destruction of enriched uranium stockpiles. As of mid-June 2026, Trump has publicly indicated an imminent signing, with technical details on enrichment and verification still under discussion. This sequence of ceasefires, bilateral talks, and concrete proposals on nuclear restrictions explains the strong implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$2,240,693Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic momentum under President Trump has elevated trader expectations for a US-Iran agreement before 2027. Following US and Israeli strikes in February 2026 and a subsequent temporary ceasefire, negotiations resumed with mediators involved, producing reports in May of a near-final memorandum of understanding that includes sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and limits on Iran's nuclear program such as destruction of enriched uranium stockpiles. As of mid-June 2026, Trump has publicly indicated an imminent signing, with technical details on enrichment and verification still under discussion. This sequence of ceasefires, bilateral talks, and concrete proposals on nuclear restrictions explains the strong implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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