Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Oman and others, have produced mixed signals driving the closely contested 52.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027, as traders weigh diplomatic momentum against firm US red lines. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end active hostilities while postponing nuclear curbs drew a skeptical US response, with President Trump insisting on immediate limits to Tehran's uranium enrichment—stockpiled at 440kg of 60% purity per February IAEA report—amid an eight-week naval blockade and ceasefire pressures. Progress in prior rounds, including phased de-escalation talks, fuels optimism, but escalation risks from stalled diplomacy or Israeli actions could tip odds downward; a US counter-offer accepting interim steps might push them higher before year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$862,239 Vol.
$862,239 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$862,239 Vol.
$862,239 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Oman and others, have produced mixed signals driving the closely contested 52.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027, as traders weigh diplomatic momentum against firm US red lines. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end active hostilities while postponing nuclear curbs drew a skeptical US response, with President Trump insisting on immediate limits to Tehran's uranium enrichment—stockpiled at 440kg of 60% purity per February IAEA report—amid an eight-week naval blockade and ceasefire pressures. Progress in prior rounds, including phased de-escalation talks, fuels optimism, but escalation risks from stalled diplomacy or Israeli actions could tip odds downward; a US counter-offer accepting interim steps might push them higher before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$862,239End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Oman and others, have produced mixed signals driving the closely contested 52.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027, as traders weigh diplomatic momentum against firm US red lines. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end active hostilities while postponing nuclear curbs drew a skeptical US response, with President Trump insisting on immediate limits to Tehran's uranium enrichment—stockpiled at 440kg of 60% purity per February IAEA report—amid an eight-week naval blockade and ceasefire pressures. Progress in prior rounds, including phased de-escalation talks, fuels optimism, but escalation risks from stalled diplomacy or Israeli actions could tip odds downward; a US counter-offer accepting interim steps might push them higher before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$862,239End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Oman and others, have produced mixed signals driving the closely contested 52.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027, as traders weigh diplomatic momentum against firm US red lines. Iran's April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end active hostilities while postponing nuclear curbs drew a skeptical US response, with President Trump insisting on immediate limits to Tehran's uranium enrichment—stockpiled at 440kg of 60% purity per February IAEA report—amid an eight-week naval blockade and ceasefire pressures. Progress in prior rounds, including phased de-escalation talks, fuels optimism, but escalation risks from stalled diplomacy or Israeli actions could tip odds downward; a US counter-offer accepting interim steps might push them higher before year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions