Recent declines in Russian inflation to 5.3% year-over-year in May 2026, combined with easing underlying price pressures and President Putin's June 10 comments signaling room for further monetary easing, have anchored trader expectations for a Bank of Russia key rate cut at the June 19 meeting. The central bank lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% in April amid slowing domestic demand and one-off fiscal factors, with its baseline forecast pointing to an average key rate near 14% for 2026 as inflation trends toward the 4% target. This strong 92% implied probability for a decrease reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on continued disinflation, though persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal policy, external conditions, or hotter-than-expected data could still prompt a hold.