The Bank of Russia's June 19 key rate decision carries a 92% market-implied probability of a cut from the current 14.50% level, driven primarily by sustained disinflation and recent signals from President Putin and central bank communications. Annual inflation has moderated toward 5.3% as of May 2026, with underlying price growth near 4–5% annualized after one-off factors such as the earlier VAT hike faded, consistent with the CBR's baseline forecast for an average 14.0–14.5% key rate in 2026. The April 50-basis-point reduction marked the eighth consecutive easing step since the 2025 peak of 21%, and Putin's June 10 remarks explicitly highlighted grounds for further relief amid slowing price pressures. A hold or hike could still occur if incoming data reveal renewed inflationary momentum from fiscal stimulus, external shocks, or labor-market tightness outpacing supply gains.