Persistent inflation above the Banco de la República’s 3% target, coupled with recent signs of acceleration from external pressures, forms the main catalyst behind the 80.5% market-implied probability of a June 30 rate hike. After 200 basis points of tightening earlier in 2026 that lifted the policy rate to 11.25%, the Board held steady at its April meeting despite some expectations for further increases. Mixed growth signals and still-elevated inflation expectations have kept monetary policy restrictive, with traders pricing in additional tightening at the upcoming decision. The June meeting, preceded by a media blackout, remains the key near-term catalyst that could confirm or alter the current pricing.