Recent U.S.-Iran talks, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, have produced a draft memorandum of understanding focused on extending the April ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and releasing limited frozen assets in exchange for Iranian commitments on navigation and future compliance. President Trump has publicly stated that final details are nearly complete with a possible signing around mid-June, while Iranian officials have signaled caution on exact timing and emphasized that detailed nuclear limits, uranium stockpile disposition, and enrichment curbs would require separate technical negotiations in a subsequent 60-day window. This sequencing, combined with domestic Iranian opposition and the short window before June 30, underpins the 57.5% trader-implied probability for a nuclear agreement by the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de junio?
¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de junio?
Sí
$9,543,105 Vol.
$9,543,105 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$9,543,105 Vol.
$9,543,105 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-Iran talks, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, have produced a draft memorandum of understanding focused on extending the April ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and releasing limited frozen assets in exchange for Iranian commitments on navigation and future compliance. President Trump has publicly stated that final details are nearly complete with a possible signing around mid-June, while Iranian officials have signaled caution on exact timing and emphasized that detailed nuclear limits, uranium stockpile disposition, and enrichment curbs would require separate technical negotiations in a subsequent 60-day window. This sequencing, combined with domestic Iranian opposition and the short window before June 30, underpins the 57.5% trader-implied probability for a nuclear agreement by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$9,543,105Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-Iran talks, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, have produced a draft memorandum of understanding focused on extending the April ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and releasing limited frozen assets in exchange for Iranian commitments on navigation and future compliance. President Trump has publicly stated that final details are nearly complete with a possible signing around mid-June, while Iranian officials have signaled caution on exact timing and emphasized that detailed nuclear limits, uranium stockpile disposition, and enrichment curbs would require separate technical negotiations in a subsequent 60-day window. This sequencing, combined with domestic Iranian opposition and the short window before June 30, underpins the 57.5% trader-implied probability for a nuclear agreement by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$9,560,214Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran talks, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, have produced a draft memorandum of understanding focused on extending the April ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and releasing limited frozen assets in exchange for Iranian commitments on navigation and future compliance. President Trump has publicly stated that final details are nearly complete with a possible signing around mid-June, while Iranian officials have signaled caution on exact timing and emphasized that detailed nuclear limits, uranium stockpile disposition, and enrichment curbs would require separate technical negotiations in a subsequent 60-day window. This sequencing, combined with domestic Iranian opposition and the short window before June 30, underpins the 57.5% trader-implied probability for a nuclear agreement by the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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