The Bank of Korea’s August 2026 policy decision remains closely contested among traders, with 25-basis-point hikes and deeper easing outcomes each carrying roughly 42–46% implied probability. Recent May CPI acceleration to 3.1% year-over-year—the highest since early 2024—driven by elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, prompted the central bank to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% while simultaneously raising GDP growth expectations to 2.6% on semiconductor export strength. The new governor’s hawkish tilt, evident in a 5-2 May hold and upward revisions to the inflation and growth outlooks, supports rate-hike pricing, yet persistent geopolitical uncertainty, a softer won, and data-dependent guidance keep 25- or 50-basis-point cuts viable ahead of the July 16 and August 27 meetings. Incoming inflation prints, FX stability, and global risk appetite will likely determine whether the policy rate stays at 2.50% or shifts modestly in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Korea decision in August?
Bank of Korea decision in August?
50+ bps hike 87%
No Change 49%
25 bps hike 48%
25 bps cut 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
50+ bps cut
43%
25 bps cut
45%
No Change
49%
25 bps hike
48%
50+ bps hike
87%
50+ bps hike 87%
No Change 49%
25 bps hike 48%
25 bps cut 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
50+ bps cut
$52 Vol.
43%
25 bps cut
$10 Vol.
45%
No Change
$10 Vol.
49%
25 bps hike
$10 Vol.
48%
50+ bps hike
$10 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s August 2026 policy decision remains closely contested among traders, with 25-basis-point hikes and deeper easing outcomes each carrying roughly 42–46% implied probability. Recent May CPI acceleration to 3.1% year-over-year—the highest since early 2024—driven by elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, prompted the central bank to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% while simultaneously raising GDP growth expectations to 2.6% on semiconductor export strength. The new governor’s hawkish tilt, evident in a 5-2 May hold and upward revisions to the inflation and growth outlooks, supports rate-hike pricing, yet persistent geopolitical uncertainty, a softer won, and data-dependent guidance keep 25- or 50-basis-point cuts viable ahead of the July 16 and August 27 meetings. Incoming inflation prints, FX stability, and global risk appetite will likely determine whether the policy rate stays at 2.50% or shifts modestly in either direction.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Market Opened: May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$92End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s August 2026 policy decision remains closely contested among traders, with 25-basis-point hikes and deeper easing outcomes each carrying roughly 42–46% implied probability. Recent May CPI acceleration to 3.1% year-over-year—the highest since early 2024—driven by elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, prompted the central bank to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% while simultaneously raising GDP growth expectations to 2.6% on semiconductor export strength. The new governor’s hawkish tilt, evident in a 5-2 May hold and upward revisions to the inflation and growth outlooks, supports rate-hike pricing, yet persistent geopolitical uncertainty, a softer won, and data-dependent guidance keep 25- or 50-basis-point cuts viable ahead of the July 16 and August 27 meetings. Incoming inflation prints, FX stability, and global risk appetite will likely determine whether the policy rate stays at 2.50% or shifts modestly in either direction.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Volume
$92End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Korea’s August 2026 policy decision remains closely contested among traders, with 25-basis-point hikes and deeper easing outcomes each carrying roughly 42–46% implied probability. Recent May CPI acceleration to 3.1% year-over-year—the highest since early 2024—driven by elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, prompted the central bank to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% while simultaneously raising GDP growth expectations to 2.6% on semiconductor export strength. The new governor’s hawkish tilt, evident in a 5-2 May hold and upward revisions to the inflation and growth outlooks, supports rate-hike pricing, yet persistent geopolitical uncertainty, a softer won, and data-dependent guidance keep 25- or 50-basis-point cuts viable ahead of the July 16 and August 27 meetings. Incoming inflation prints, FX stability, and global risk appetite will likely determine whether the policy rate stays at 2.50% or shifts modestly in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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