The January 2026 U.S. special operations raid in Venezuela, which included targeted airstrikes on air defenses and infrastructure followed by a brief Delta Force incursion to capture Nicolás Maduro and his wife on narco-terrorism charges, has shaped trader assessments for any market on U.S. invasion. That limited action, lasting under three hours and without sustained territorial control or large-scale ground forces, did not trigger full occupation or regime replacement. Subsequent developments include Delcy Rodríguez’s installation as interim president, a declared state of emergency, U.S. enforcement of oil-related sanctions and quarantines, and administration statements rejecting nation-building while signaling possible further pressure short of invasion. Ongoing regional diplomacy, Venezuelan internal stability efforts, and historical U.S. reluctance for prolonged military commitments in the country continue to anchor low implied probabilities for a conventional invasion by later 2026 dates.