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Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election

icon for Colombia Presidential Election
Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election

Iván Cepeda Castro 40%

Paloma Valencia 33.5%

Abelardo de la Espriella 28%

Sergio Fajardo (DC) <1%

Polymarket

$26,534,775 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 40%

Paloma Valencia 33.5%

Abelardo de la Espriella 28%

Sergio Fajardo (DC) <1%

Polymarket

$26,534,775 Vol.

icon for Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro

$770,086 Vol.

40%

icon for Paloma Valencia

Paloma Valencia

$944,818 Vol.

34%

icon for Abelardo de la Espriella

Abelardo de la Espriella

$928,611 Vol.

28%

icon for Sergio Fajardo (DC)

Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$1,519,651 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vicky Dávila (IND)

Vicky Dávila (IND)

$2,702,960 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,561,096 Vol.

<1%

icon for Claudia López (IND)

Claudia López (IND)

$926,787 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$1,230,556 Vol.

<1%

icon for Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$1,564,306 Vol.

<1%

icon for Roy Barreras

Roy Barreras

$924,719 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlos Felipe Córdoba

Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$430,682 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Luna Sánchez (IND)

David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$1,735,553 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$5,748,283 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$705,607 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mauricio Cárdenas

Mauricio Cárdenas

$2,394,979 Vol.

<1%

icon for Daniel Quintero

Daniel Quintero

$692,724 Vol.

<1%

icon for Enrique Peñalosa

Enrique Peñalosa

$1,303,034 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$425,739 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket elevates unidentified moderate Candidate M to a 49.5% implied probability of winning Colombia's 2026 presidential election, reflecting bets on centrist consolidation amid polarization ahead of the May 31 first-round vote and potential June 21 runoff. Left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda Castro holds 39.5%, buoyed by recent Invamer (44%), GAD3, and AtlasIntel polls showing him leading first-round intention at 36-44% following Historic Pact's strong March congressional performance, though he trails in simulated runoffs. Right-wing Senator Paloma Valencia (33.5%) and populist lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (27.5%) draw support from security and anti-corruption pledges, with their combined polling nearing 50% but split, fueling market divergence from aggregators as traders weigh vote concentration and undecideds.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$26,534,775
End Date
Jun 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket elevates unidentified moderate Candidate M to a 49.5% implied probability of winning Colombia's 2026 presidential election, reflecting bets on centrist consolidation amid polarization ahead of the May 31 first-round vote and potential June 21 runoff. Left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda Castro holds 39.5%, buoyed by recent Invamer (44%), GAD3, and AtlasIntel polls showing him leading first-round intention at 36-44% following Historic Pact's strong March congressional performance, though he trails in simulated runoffs. Right-wing Senator Paloma Valencia (33.5%) and populist lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (27.5%) draw support from security and anti-corruption pledges, with their combined polling nearing 50% but split, fueling market divergence from aggregators as traders weigh vote concentration and undecideds.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$26,534,775
End Date
Jun 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Related

icon for Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

51%
icon for Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

92%
icon for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

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6%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 40%, followed by "Paloma Valencia" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Colombia Presidential Election" has generated $26.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Colombia Presidential Election," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Presidential Election" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.