Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—No change at 55.5% versus a 25 basis point hike at 47.4%—stem from the Bank of Japan's April 28 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote split, with dissenters pushing for an immediate increase amid elevated inflation forecasts of 2.8% core CPI for fiscal 2026. Hawkish signals from stronger shunto wage gains and March core CPI at 1.8% year-over-year contend with downgraded GDP growth to 0.5%, Iran-related energy risks, and USDJPY near 160 pressuring the yen. Key swing factors include upcoming May Tokyo CPI on May 1 and national data, alongside June 15-16 meeting proximity, where geopolitical stability could tip sentiment toward normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 56%
25 bps increase 47.2%
Decrease rates <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$79,908 Vol.
$79,908 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
<1%
No change
56%
25 bps increase
47%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 56%
25 bps increase 47.2%
Decrease rates <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$79,908 Vol.
$79,908 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
$26,966 Vol.
<1%
No change
$21,196 Vol.
56%
25 bps increase
$15,171 Vol.
47%
50+ bps increase
$17,130 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—No change at 55.5% versus a 25 basis point hike at 47.4%—stem from the Bank of Japan's April 28 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote split, with dissenters pushing for an immediate increase amid elevated inflation forecasts of 2.8% core CPI for fiscal 2026. Hawkish signals from stronger shunto wage gains and March core CPI at 1.8% year-over-year contend with downgraded GDP growth to 0.5%, Iran-related energy risks, and USDJPY near 160 pressuring the yen. Key swing factors include upcoming May Tokyo CPI on May 1 and national data, alongside June 15-16 meeting proximity, where geopolitical stability could tip sentiment toward normalization.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$79,908End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—No change at 55.5% versus a 25 basis point hike at 47.4%—stem from the Bank of Japan's April 28 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote split, with dissenters pushing for an immediate increase amid elevated inflation forecasts of 2.8% core CPI for fiscal 2026. Hawkish signals from stronger shunto wage gains and March core CPI at 1.8% year-over-year contend with downgraded GDP growth to 0.5%, Iran-related energy risks, and USDJPY near 160 pressuring the yen. Key swing factors include upcoming May Tokyo CPI on May 1 and national data, alongside June 15-16 meeting proximity, where geopolitical stability could tip sentiment toward normalization.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$79,908End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—No change at 55.5% versus a 25 basis point hike at 47.4%—stem from the Bank of Japan's April 28 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote split, with dissenters pushing for an immediate increase amid elevated inflation forecasts of 2.8% core CPI for fiscal 2026. Hawkish signals from stronger shunto wage gains and March core CPI at 1.8% year-over-year contend with downgraded GDP growth to 0.5%, Iran-related energy risks, and USDJPY near 160 pressuring the yen. Key swing factors include upcoming May Tokyo CPI on May 1 and national data, alongside June 15-16 meeting proximity, where geopolitical stability could tip sentiment toward normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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