Market-implied odds assign a 98.7% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting broad consensus that persistent inflation pressures—especially elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments—and yen weakness have shifted the policy balance toward normalization. Recent Reuters polling showed 94% of economists expecting the uncollateralized overnight call rate to reach 1.0% by end-June from the current 0.75% level, supported by resilient first-quarter GDP and upward revisions to core inflation forecasts. The dominant positioning leaves little room for alternatives, though an unexpected softening in incoming data or a sharp escalation in global risk aversion could still alter the outcome before the statement release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 98.7%
No change <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
Decrease rates <1%
$586,883 Vol.
$586,883 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
<1%
No change
1%
25 bps increase
99%
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase 98.7%
No change <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
Decrease rates <1%
$586,883 Vol.
$586,883 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
$92,333 Vol.
<1%
No change
$146,925 Vol.
1%
25 bps increase
$155,762 Vol.
99%
50+ bps increase
$201,915 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign a 98.7% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting broad consensus that persistent inflation pressures—especially elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments—and yen weakness have shifted the policy balance toward normalization. Recent Reuters polling showed 94% of economists expecting the uncollateralized overnight call rate to reach 1.0% by end-June from the current 0.75% level, supported by resilient first-quarter GDP and upward revisions to core inflation forecasts. The dominant positioning leaves little room for alternatives, though an unexpected softening in incoming data or a sharp escalation in global risk aversion could still alter the outcome before the statement release.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$586,883End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign a 98.7% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting broad consensus that persistent inflation pressures—especially elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments—and yen weakness have shifted the policy balance toward normalization. Recent Reuters polling showed 94% of economists expecting the uncollateralized overnight call rate to reach 1.0% by end-June from the current 0.75% level, supported by resilient first-quarter GDP and upward revisions to core inflation forecasts. The dominant positioning leaves little room for alternatives, though an unexpected softening in incoming data or a sharp escalation in global risk aversion could still alter the outcome before the statement release.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$586,883End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds assign a 98.7% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting broad consensus that persistent inflation pressures—especially elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments—and yen weakness have shifted the policy balance toward normalization. Recent Reuters polling showed 94% of economists expecting the uncollateralized overnight call rate to reach 1.0% by end-June from the current 0.75% level, supported by resilient first-quarter GDP and upward revisions to core inflation forecasts. The dominant positioning leaves little room for alternatives, though an unexpected softening in incoming data or a sharp escalation in global risk aversion could still alter the outcome before the statement release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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