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World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

icon for Iran leader end of 2026?
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 59.7%

Reza Pahlavi 10%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.3%

No Head of State 2.5%

Polymarket

$7,046,701 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 59.7%

Reza Pahlavi 10%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.3%

No Head of State 2.5%

Polymarket

$7,046,701 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,717,679 Vol.

60%

Reza Pahlavi

$167,252 Vol.

10%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$181,329 Vol.

4%

No Head of State

$376,105 Vol.

3%

Hassan Rouhani

$283,228 Vol.

2%

Ahmad Vahidi

$207,686 Vol.

2%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$54,268 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$111,031 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$261,425 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$789,050 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$746,346 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$264,993 Vol.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$399,865 Vol.

1%

Massoud Rajavi

$30,277 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$180,911 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$280,891 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$162,384 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$39,675 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$56,804 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$77,430 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$51,849 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$78,412 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$36,043 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$25,178 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$53,657 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$39,386 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$50,527 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$38,544 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$18,770 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$30,215 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 59.7% to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by year-end, reflecting his March 2026 appointment by the Assembly of Experts following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes amid the ongoing war. However, recent New York Times reporting and intelligence leaks detail his severe injuries from the same strikes—including multiple leg surgeries, facial burns impairing speech, and restricted mobility—prompting questions about his capacity, with only written statements issued and generals reportedly wielding de facto power. Reza Pahlavi's 8.5% share stems from his heightened visibility pitching a transitional role and "Iran Prosperity Project" to opposition amid widespread protests and regime instability. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf at 4.5% nods to parliamentary influence, while low odds for others and "No Head of State" at 2.5% underscore uncertainty from health risks, escalation signals like Strait of Hormuz tensions, and potential leadership crises before December 31.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$7,046,701
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 59.7% to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by year-end, reflecting his March 2026 appointment by the Assembly of Experts following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes amid the ongoing war. However, recent New York Times reporting and intelligence leaks detail his severe injuries from the same strikes—including multiple leg surgeries, facial burns impairing speech, and restricted mobility—prompting questions about his capacity, with only written statements issued and generals reportedly wielding de facto power. Reza Pahlavi's 8.5% share stems from his heightened visibility pitching a transitional role and "Iran Prosperity Project" to opposition amid widespread protests and regime instability. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf at 4.5% nods to parliamentary influence, while low odds for others and "No Head of State" at 2.5% underscore uncertainty from health risks, escalation signals like Strait of Hormuz tensions, and potential leadership crises before December 31.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$7,046,701
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 60%, followed by "Reza Pahlavi" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Reza Pahlavi" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.