A Reddit thread and several social‑media posts revive discussion of Zelenskyy’s nomination, briefly lifting his odds before the market settled back

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 10%2%

A Reddit thread and several social‑media posts revive discussion of Zelenskyy’s nomination, briefly lifting his odds before the market settled back

ICJ orders Israel to halt its offensive in Rafah, issuing new provisional measures in the South‑Africa genocide case, renewing attention on the Court’s impact

International Court of Justice rises to 7%4%

ICJ orders Israel to halt its offensive in Rafah, issuing new provisional measures in the South‑Africa genocide case, renewing attention on the Court’s impact

European political leaders urge the Nobel Committee to extend the nomination deadline to consider Zelenskyy’s “unprecedented bravery” and leadership during the ongoing conflict,

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 14%3%

European political leaders urge the Nobel Committee to extend the nomination deadline to consider Zelenskyy’s “unprecedented bravery” and leadership during the ongoing conflict, sustaining market interest

Media outlets report that the Nobel Committee’s shortlist is expected to include “the Ukrainian people and President Zelenskyy,” causing a short‑term rally

Volodymyr Zelenskyy drops to 8%5%

Media outlets report that the Nobel Committee’s shortlist is expected to include “the Ukrainian people and President Zelenskyy,” causing a short‑term rally

Yulia Navalnaya publicly states she was certain from the first day that her husband was poisoned and calls Putin a murderer who must be held accountable, reinforcing her role as a

Yulia Navalnaya dips to 8%2%

Yulia Navalnaya publicly states she was certain from the first day that her husband was poisoned and calls Putin a murderer who must be held accountable, reinforcing her role as a vocal critic of the Kremlin and a human rights advocate.

Five European nations (UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands) officially accuse Russia of poisoning Alexei Navalny with a rare toxin from poison dart frogs, confirming Yulia

Yulia Navalnaya dips to 8%2%

Five European nations (UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands) officially accuse Russia of poisoning Alexei Navalny with a rare toxin from poison dart frogs, confirming Yulia Navalnaya’s long-held claims and blaming Putin’s regime. This major international development, coinciding with the second anniversary of Navalny’s death and Navalnaya’s attendance at the Munich Security Conference, brought intense global attention but did not translate into increased market.

Norwegian Nobel Institute publicly discloses that Zelenskyy is among 287 nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, confirming his candidacy and causing a

Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 11%6%

Norwegian Nobel Institute publicly discloses that Zelenskyy is among 287 nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, confirming his candidacy and causing a

Zelenskyy’s nomination is highlighted in a Change.org petition that gathers thousands of signatures, further boosting his perceived odds

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 13%3%

Zelenskyy’s nomination is highlighted in a Change.org petition that gathers thousands of signatures, further boosting his perceived odds

Pope Leo XIV’s theology of “disarming language” gains attention as a novel peace approach

Pope Leo XIV jumps to 7%5%

The market responded positively to his innovative peace theology, causing a

Opinio Juris analysis notes the ICJ’s “latest advisory opinion on Gaza” and predicts further legal pressure on Israel, reviving Nobel‑relevance chatter

International Court of Justice rises to 12%3%

Opinio Juris analysis notes the ICJ’s “latest advisory opinion on Gaza” and predicts further legal pressure on Israel, reviving Nobel‑relevance chatter

Israel bulldozes UNRWA headquarters in East Jerusalem amid ongoing bans and accusations, marking a significant blow to the agency's presence and operations

UNRWA dips to 3%1%

Israel bulldozes UNRWA headquarters in East Jerusalem amid ongoing bans and accusations, marking a significant blow to the agency's presence and operations

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits Doha and meets with Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, discussing strategic partnerships and recognizing Qatar's role in promoting global

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani dips to 4%2%

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits Doha and meets with Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, discussing strategic partnerships and recognizing Qatar's role in promoting global peace and stability, which may have slightly supported

Dag Øistein Endsjø reiterates his nomination of Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the Nobel Peace Prize, emphasizing their role in preserving peace for European democracies,

Dag Øistein Endsjø reiterates his nomination of Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the Nobel Peace Prize, emphasizing their role in preserving peace for European democracies, supporting a modest

Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally submits a nomination of Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people to the Nobel Committee, sparking a modest uptick in market confidence

Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 10%6%

Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally submits a nomination of Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people to the Nobel Committee, sparking a modest uptick in market confidence

María Corina Machado presents her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump at the White House as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in Venezuela’s freedom

Donald Trump rises to 17%3%

The high-profile medal presentation at the White House renewed market hopes, briefly increasing Trump’s.

Pope Leo XIV proclaims Franciscan Jubilee Year, urging imitation of St. Francis amid global conflicts

Pope Leo XIV rises to 4%1%

This proclamation reinforced his peace advocacy but had limited market impact, reflected in a small

Media reports highlight the ICJ’s “sign of trust” from governments after Belgium’s entry, sparking a brief optimism surge

International Court of Justice jumps to 13%5%

Media reports highlight the ICJ’s “sign of trust” from governments after Belgium’s entry, sparking a brief optimism surge

Belgium formally joins South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the ICJ, expanding the Court’s involvement in Gaza‑related litigation

International Court of Justice jumps to 8%5%

Belgium formally joins South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the ICJ, expanding the Court’s involvement in Gaza‑related litigation

Zelenskyy announces Ukraine could hold elections within three months with Western security guarantees, responding to criticism and signaling political stability efforts, which

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 5%2%

Zelenskyy announces Ukraine could hold elections within three months with Western security guarantees, responding to criticism and signaling political stability efforts, which temporarily boosted market confidence

Donald Trump receives the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize, highlighting his ongoing peace efforts despite missing the Nobel Prize

Donald Trump rises to 21%3%

This award provided a positive signal about Trump’s peace credentials, causing a temporary.

Analysis argues UNRWA in Gaza has been replaced by other aid organizations and calls for shuttering the agency, highlighting its radicalizing agenda and loss of U.S. support

UNRWA drops to 4%5%

Analysis argues UNRWA in Gaza has been replaced by other aid organizations and calls for shuttering the agency, highlighting its radicalizing agenda and loss of U.S. support

UNRWA Commissioner-General warns of a severe funding shortfall of about $200 million threatening critical services to millions of Palestinian refugees

UNRWA dips to 3%2%

UNRWA Commissioner-General warns of a severe funding shortfall of about $200 million threatening critical services to millions of Palestinian refugees

President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan meets with Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Doha during the Second World Summit on Social Development, reflecting ongoing diplomatic

President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan meets with Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Doha during the Second World Summit on Social Development, reflecting ongoing diplomatic activity without Nobel Peace Prize implications

ICJ delivers landmark advisory opinion on Israel’s obligations in the occupied Palestinian territory, condemning aid blockades and affirming UNRWA’s role

International Court of Justice plunges to 4%45%

ICJ delivers landmark advisory opinion on Israel’s obligations in the occupied Palestinian territory, condemning aid blockades and affirming UNRWA’s role

U.S. State Department publicly rebukes the ICJ ruling, defending Israel and questioning the Court’s authority

International Court of Justice dips to 3%1%

U.S. State Department publicly rebukes the ICJ ruling, defending Israel and questioning the Court’s authority

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani arrives in Kigali for a strategic two-day visit to deepen partnerships in aviation, innovation, and investment with Rwanda, highlighting Qatar's

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 8%42%

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani arrives in Kigali for a strategic two-day visit to deepen partnerships in aviation, innovation, and investment with Rwanda, highlighting Qatar's expanding international cooperation but not directly linked to peace prize prospects

An Oslo professor publicly nominates President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reviving media attention on his candidacy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 4%1%

An Oslo professor publicly nominates President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reviving media attention on his candidacy

Reuters reports that the Trump‑Zelenskyy meeting focused on peace‑talks rather than new weapons, reinforcing doubts about Zelenskyy’s chances and keeping his odds low

Reuters reports that the Trump‑Zelenskyy meeting focused on peace‑talks rather than new weapons, reinforcing doubts about Zelenskyy’s chances and keeping his odds low

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Zelenskyy at the White House, expressing frustration over not receiving the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and showing reluctance to fully support

Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 2%1%

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Zelenskyy at the White House, expressing frustration over not receiving the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and showing reluctance to fully support Ukraine’s military needs, dampening Zelenskyy’s market prospects

President Donald Trump meets Zelenskyy at the White House and publicly complains about not having won a Nobel Peace Prize, prompting speculation that the Nobel Committee would

Volodymyr Zelenskyy plunges to 3%47%

President Donald Trump meets Zelenskyy at the White House and publicly complains about not having won a Nobel Peace Prize, prompting speculation that the Nobel Committee would favor a U.S. candidate over the Ukrainian president

Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally nominates President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, highlighting their defense of democracy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy plunges to 3%47%

Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally nominates President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, highlighting their defense of democracy against Russian aggression and raising early market optimism

Pope Leo XIV closes 2025 Vatican Holy Year, condemning consumerism and calling for peace and fairness

His strong social justice message at the Jubilee's close may have been overshadowed by other global events or skepticism about his Nobel prospects, triggering a steep

Nobel Peace Prize awarded to María Corina Machado, who publicly dedicates the prize to Donald Trump for his support of Venezuelan freedom

Donald Trump dips to 21%4%

The announcement that Trump did not win but was publicly praised by Machado caused a moderate.

Yulia Navalnaya receives the Brigitte Honorary Award in Berlin for her courage and political commitment continuing her late husband Alexei Navalny’s work, raising her

Yulia Navalnaya rises to 7%1%

Yulia Navalnaya receives the Brigitte Honorary Award in Berlin for her courage and political commitment continuing her late husband Alexei Navalny’s work, raising her international profile as a symbol of Russian opposition. This recognition may have stabilized her market.

Yulia Navalnaya publicly urges the European Union not to impose a blanket ban on tourist visas for Russian citizens, emphasizing that ordinary Russians are not responsible for the

Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%

Yulia Navalnaya publicly urges the European Union not to impose a blanket ban on tourist visas for Russian citizens, emphasizing that ordinary Russians are not responsible for the war and calling for targeted sanctions against Putin’s inner circle. This high-profile advocacy highlighted her role as a leading opposition figure but did not significantly boost market confidence, as.

Yulia Navalnaya is awarded the Central European University Open Society Prize, recognized for her fearless advocacy and leadership against authoritarianism, reinforcing her status

Yulia Navalnaya is awarded the Central European University Open Society Prize, recognized for her fearless advocacy and leadership against authoritarianism, reinforcing her status as a prominent opposition figure abroad.

Pakistan leaders announce recommendation of Donald Trump for Nobel Peace Prize for his diplomatic role in India-Pakistan crisis

Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%

Pakistan’s official recommendation boosted market optimism about Trump’s chances for the 2026 prize, contributing to a sharp.

Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani hosts former U.S.

President Donald Trump in Doha, emphasizing Qatar's diplomatic prominence but not directly related to Nobel Peace Prize prospects

Cardinal Robert Prevost elected Pope Leo XIV, first American pope, emphasizing peace and unity in inaugural address

The election generated initial high market optimism for his Nobel chances due to his reformist image and global appeal.

U.S. announces temporary pause of funding to UNRWA following Israeli accusations that a dozen UNRWA employees participated in the October 7 Hamas attack

UNRWA dips to 7%3%

U.S. announces temporary pause of funding to UNRWA following Israeli accusations that a dozen UNRWA employees participated in the October 7 Hamas attack

Israeli Knesset passes laws banning UNRWA operations from Israeli territory and bars contact with Israeli officials, severely restricting UNRWA's access and operations

UNRWA plunges to 9%41%

Israeli Knesset passes laws banning UNRWA operations from Israeli territory and bars contact with Israeli officials, severely restricting UNRWA's access and operations