Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait over recent months. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Beijing prioritizes unification through coercion short of war and lacks a fixed timeline for military action. Ongoing PLA activities remain limited to normalized air incursions, joint combat readiness patrols, and coast guard operations, consistent with gray-zone pressure rather than invasion preparation. With only weeks remaining, logistical realities and lack of escalation signals reinforce consensus. Late shifts could theoretically arise from an unforeseen diplomatic crisis or miscalculation, though such developments lack supporting indicators.