Traders assign a 93% implied probability to no rate change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s anticipated 25 basis point hike to 1% at its June 15–16 gathering and a subsequent data-dependent pause. Recent communications from Governor Kazuo Ueda have emphasized vigilance on underlying inflation and the output gap while signaling that the June adjustment would address mounting price pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments. April core CPI at 1.4% remains below the 2% target, supporting a measured approach rather than consecutive tightening. A clearer path to additional hikes would require firmer May–June inflation prints, sustained yen weakness, or upgraded BOJ forecasts at the July Outlook Report that exceed current consensus estimates for 2.4% core inflation in fiscal 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 93%
25 bps increase 7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
93%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 93%
25 bps increase 7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,385 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$1,456 Vol.
<1%
No change
$1,106 Vol.
93%
25 bps increase
$1,529 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$1,135 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93% implied probability to no rate change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s anticipated 25 basis point hike to 1% at its June 15–16 gathering and a subsequent data-dependent pause. Recent communications from Governor Kazuo Ueda have emphasized vigilance on underlying inflation and the output gap while signaling that the June adjustment would address mounting price pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments. April core CPI at 1.4% remains below the 2% target, supporting a measured approach rather than consecutive tightening. A clearer path to additional hikes would require firmer May–June inflation prints, sustained yen weakness, or upgraded BOJ forecasts at the July Outlook Report that exceed current consensus estimates for 2.4% core inflation in fiscal 2026.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$6,611Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93% implied probability to no rate change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s anticipated 25 basis point hike to 1% at its June 15–16 gathering and a subsequent data-dependent pause. Recent communications from Governor Kazuo Ueda have emphasized vigilance on underlying inflation and the output gap while signaling that the June adjustment would address mounting price pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments. April core CPI at 1.4% remains below the 2% target, supporting a measured approach rather than consecutive tightening. A clearer path to additional hikes would require firmer May–June inflation prints, sustained yen weakness, or upgraded BOJ forecasts at the July Outlook Report that exceed current consensus estimates for 2.4% core inflation in fiscal 2026.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$6,611Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 93% implied probability to no rate change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s anticipated 25 basis point hike to 1% at its June 15–16 gathering and a subsequent data-dependent pause. Recent communications from Governor Kazuo Ueda have emphasized vigilance on underlying inflation and the output gap while signaling that the June adjustment would address mounting price pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments. April core CPI at 1.4% remains below the 2% target, supporting a measured approach rather than consecutive tightening. A clearer path to additional hikes would require firmer May–June inflation prints, sustained yen weakness, or upgraded BOJ forecasts at the July Outlook Report that exceed current consensus estimates for 2.4% core inflation in fiscal 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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