The market-implied 93% probability of no change at the Bank of Japan's July 30-31 policy meeting reflects trader expectations that officials will pause after an anticipated 25 basis point hike to 1% at the June 15-16 meeting. Recent communications from Governor Kazuo Ueda and elevated inflation readings—driven by energy price shocks and yen weakness—have cemented the near-term tightening path, yet the move would mark the highest policy rate since 1995, prompting a data-dependent approach to assess wage trends and growth impacts. The July Tankan survey and subsequent CPI releases represent key catalysts that could reinforce the pause. A sharper inflation surge or accelerated yen depreciation could still tilt sentiment toward another increase, while softer economic indicators would further entrench the no-change consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 93%
25 bps increase 7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
93%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 93%
25 bps increase 7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,385 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$1,456 Vol.
<1%
No change
$1,106 Vol.
93%
25 bps increase
$1,529 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$1,135 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The market-implied 93% probability of no change at the Bank of Japan's July 30-31 policy meeting reflects trader expectations that officials will pause after an anticipated 25 basis point hike to 1% at the June 15-16 meeting. Recent communications from Governor Kazuo Ueda and elevated inflation readings—driven by energy price shocks and yen weakness—have cemented the near-term tightening path, yet the move would mark the highest policy rate since 1995, prompting a data-dependent approach to assess wage trends and growth impacts. The July Tankan survey and subsequent CPI releases represent key catalysts that could reinforce the pause. A sharper inflation surge or accelerated yen depreciation could still tilt sentiment toward another increase, while softer economic indicators would further entrench the no-change consensus.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$6,611End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The market-implied 93% probability of no change at the Bank of Japan's July 30-31 policy meeting reflects trader expectations that officials will pause after an anticipated 25 basis point hike to 1% at the June 15-16 meeting. Recent communications from Governor Kazuo Ueda and elevated inflation readings—driven by energy price shocks and yen weakness—have cemented the near-term tightening path, yet the move would mark the highest policy rate since 1995, prompting a data-dependent approach to assess wage trends and growth impacts. The July Tankan survey and subsequent CPI releases represent key catalysts that could reinforce the pause. A sharper inflation surge or accelerated yen depreciation could still tilt sentiment toward another increase, while softer economic indicators would further entrench the no-change consensus.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$6,611End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied 93% probability of no change at the Bank of Japan's July 30-31 policy meeting reflects trader expectations that officials will pause after an anticipated 25 basis point hike to 1% at the June 15-16 meeting. Recent communications from Governor Kazuo Ueda and elevated inflation readings—driven by energy price shocks and yen weakness—have cemented the near-term tightening path, yet the move would mark the highest policy rate since 1995, prompting a data-dependent approach to assess wage trends and growth impacts. The July Tankan survey and subsequent CPI releases represent key catalysts that could reinforce the pause. A sharper inflation surge or accelerated yen depreciation could still tilt sentiment toward another increase, while softer economic indicators would further entrench the no-change consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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