**Trader consensus on an 8% chance of US annexation of any territory by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of completed legal, diplomatic, or executive steps that would formally incorporate new land.** Proposals centered on Greenland have dominated discussion since early 2026, including President Trump’s public calls for negotiations, tariff pressure on Denmark, and introduction of the Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act (H.R. 7012) authorizing presidential action. These initiatives have produced statements and limited legislative activity but no ratified treaty, Senate confirmation, or joint resolution transferring sovereignty. Denmark and Greenland’s leadership have rejected sale or cession, while NATO allies and congressional requirements for approval create additional procedural hurdles. Parallel references to Canada, the Panama Canal Zone, or influence operations in Venezuela have yielded diplomatic friction or cooperative arrangements rather than formal territorial incorporation. With roughly six months remaining in the calendar year and no binding agreements or military pathways advanced, the market prices sudden completion as improbable. Historical precedent further supports low likelihood, as the United States has added no new permanent territory through annexation or purchase since the mid-20th century.