Constitutional requirements for U.S. statehood under Article IV, including congressional legislation and consent from the affected population, create insurmountable barriers for Venezuela, a sovereign foreign nation, to achieve formal annexation by the December 2026 resolution deadline. Recent statements from U.S. President Trump referencing the possibility prompted immediate rejection by Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodríguez, who reaffirmed territorial sovereignty, with no supporting legislation, negotiations, or bilateral agreements underway. These structural and diplomatic realities drive the overwhelming trader consensus reflected in the 96.6% probability on No. Only improbable late developments, such as sudden congressional realignments or major geopolitical shifts, could alter the outcome before year-end.