Recent National Weather Service model guidance indicates a post-heat-wave cooldown for New York City on May 22, with a shift to cooler northerly flow and partly cloudy skies limiting daytime heating. Ensemble forecasts from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts converge on a daily maximum near 64–66 °F, reflecting modest uncertainty in the precise timing of cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Historical May climatology shows this range aligns with typical early-summer transition conditions, though lingering warm advection could push readings a degree or two higher if afternoon clearing occurs. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow 64–67 °F outcomes most heavily while discounting extremes outside the 60–72 °F envelope given the stable synoptic pattern.