Latest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Miami’s overnight low on May 18 between 76 °F and 80 °F, driving the 78-79 °F bracket to a 37 % market-implied probability. Persistent warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and light southerly flow limit radiational cooling, while the absence of frontal passages or strong subsidence keeps the boundary layer elevated compared with mid-May climatological normals near 74 °F. Recent model runs show only modest spread, with the highest-resolution forecasts clustering around 78 °F, consistent with the current 80-81 °F contract at 16.5 %. Traders are watching the next NWS update and any shift in steering winds that could allow slightly cooler air to reach the urban heat island before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on May 18?
Lowest temperature in Miami on May 18?
78-79°F 44%
80-81°F 24%
76-77°F 10%
74-75°F 6.0%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
33%
80-81°F
23%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 44%
80-81°F 24%
76-77°F 10%
74-75°F 6.0%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
73°F or below
$371 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$258 Vol.
7%
76-77°F
$213 Vol.
10%
78-79°F
$104 Vol.
33%
80-81°F
$55 Vol.
23%
82-83°F
$239 Vol.
5%
84-85°F
$1,052 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$917 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$62 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$475 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$251 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Miami’s overnight low on May 18 between 76 °F and 80 °F, driving the 78-79 °F bracket to a 37 % market-implied probability. Persistent warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and light southerly flow limit radiational cooling, while the absence of frontal passages or strong subsidence keeps the boundary layer elevated compared with mid-May climatological normals near 74 °F. Recent model runs show only modest spread, with the highest-resolution forecasts clustering around 78 °F, consistent with the current 80-81 °F contract at 16.5 %. Traders are watching the next NWS update and any shift in steering winds that could allow slightly cooler air to reach the urban heat island before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,985End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Miami’s overnight low on May 18 between 76 °F and 80 °F, driving the 78-79 °F bracket to a 37 % market-implied probability. Persistent warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and light southerly flow limit radiational cooling, while the absence of frontal passages or strong subsidence keeps the boundary layer elevated compared with mid-May climatological normals near 74 °F. Recent model runs show only modest spread, with the highest-resolution forecasts clustering around 78 °F, consistent with the current 80-81 °F contract at 16.5 %. Traders are watching the next NWS update and any shift in steering winds that could allow slightly cooler air to reach the urban heat island before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,985End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIALatest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Miami’s overnight low on May 18 between 76 °F and 80 °F, driving the 78-79 °F bracket to a 37 % market-implied probability. Persistent warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and light southerly flow limit radiational cooling, while the absence of frontal passages or strong subsidence keeps the boundary layer elevated compared with mid-May climatological normals near 74 °F. Recent model runs show only modest spread, with the highest-resolution forecasts clustering around 78 °F, consistent with the current 80-81 °F contract at 16.5 %. Traders are watching the next NWS update and any shift in steering winds that could allow slightly cooler air to reach the urban heat island before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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