Recent model guidance from the UK Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points to a mild southwesterly Atlantic flow bringing increased cloud cover and limited radiative cooling over London on May 24, supporting overnight lows clustered around 15–17 °C. This setup contrasts with clearer northerly regimes that historically allow temperatures to dip toward 12–14 °C. Current ensemble spreads reflect modest uncertainty tied to exact timing of any showers and boundary-layer mixing, keeping the top three outcomes—16 °C, 15 °C, and 17 °C—nearly even in trader pricing. Historical May climatology shows average minima near 9 °C, so the current warmer signal stems from persistent spring warmth across northwest Europe rather than a single transient feature. Updated high-resolution runs expected in the next 48 hours will refine whether the minimum settles at or above 15 °C.