Recent short-range numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Wuhan on May 19 most likely between 24°C and 25°C, driven by moderate southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions contrast with clearer-sky scenarios that could push readings to 26°C or higher, while stronger precipitation or northerly advection might cap the peak closer to 23°C. Historical May climatology shows average daily maxima near 26°C, providing context for the current tight clustering of market-implied odds around these thresholds. Updated model runs and official guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the outcome further as the event nears resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on May 19?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 19?
24°C 31%
25°C 24%
26°C or higher 16%
23°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
14%
24°C
31%
25°C
24%
26°C or higher
16%
24°C 31%
25°C 24%
26°C or higher 16%
23°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
16°C or below
$223 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$205 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$315 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$584 Vol.
1%
20°C
$256 Vol.
1%
21°C
$197 Vol.
2%
22°C
$173 Vol.
5%
23°C
$32 Vol.
14%
24°C
$103 Vol.
31%
25°C
$80 Vol.
24%
26°C or higher
$98 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Wuhan on May 19 most likely between 24°C and 25°C, driven by moderate southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions contrast with clearer-sky scenarios that could push readings to 26°C or higher, while stronger precipitation or northerly advection might cap the peak closer to 23°C. Historical May climatology shows average daily maxima near 26°C, providing context for the current tight clustering of market-implied odds around these thresholds. Updated model runs and official guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the outcome further as the event nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$2,266End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Wuhan on May 19 most likely between 24°C and 25°C, driven by moderate southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions contrast with clearer-sky scenarios that could push readings to 26°C or higher, while stronger precipitation or northerly advection might cap the peak closer to 23°C. Historical May climatology shows average daily maxima near 26°C, providing context for the current tight clustering of market-implied odds around these thresholds. Updated model runs and official guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the outcome further as the event nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,266End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHRecent short-range numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Wuhan on May 19 most likely between 24°C and 25°C, driven by moderate southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions contrast with clearer-sky scenarios that could push readings to 26°C or higher, while stronger precipitation or northerly advection might cap the peak closer to 23°C. Historical May climatology shows average daily maxima near 26°C, providing context for the current tight clustering of market-implied odds around these thresholds. Updated model runs and official guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the outcome further as the event nears resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions