Recent PAGASA forecasts and supporting model consensus indicate a 33–34°C peak for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow and modest moisture, aligning with the near-even trader split between those two outcomes. May marks the climatological peak of the dry season in Metro Manila, when intense solar radiation, minimal cloud cover, and the urban heat island effect at stations like Ninoy Aquino International Airport routinely push daily maxima to 33–35°C. Subtle differences in steering patterns or afternoon humidity could shift readings by 1–2°C either way, while any late increase in convective activity would favor the lower 33°C bin. Resolution depends on official PAGASA maximum temperature readings tomorrow, leaving traders focused on the final model runs and observed conditions through peak afternoon hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on May 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 18?
34°C 38%
35°C 31%
33°C 24%
36°C 9.5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
24%
34°C
38%
35°C
31%
36°C
10%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 38%
35°C 31%
33°C 24%
36°C 9.5%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
29°C or below
$1,006 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$108 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,083 Vol.
1%
32°C
$928 Vol.
4%
33°C
$701 Vol.
24%
34°C
$420 Vol.
38%
35°C
$255 Vol.
31%
36°C
$941 Vol.
10%
37°C
$343 Vol.
2%
38°C
$338 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$299 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent PAGASA forecasts and supporting model consensus indicate a 33–34°C peak for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow and modest moisture, aligning with the near-even trader split between those two outcomes. May marks the climatological peak of the dry season in Metro Manila, when intense solar radiation, minimal cloud cover, and the urban heat island effect at stations like Ninoy Aquino International Airport routinely push daily maxima to 33–35°C. Subtle differences in steering patterns or afternoon humidity could shift readings by 1–2°C either way, while any late increase in convective activity would favor the lower 33°C bin. Resolution depends on official PAGASA maximum temperature readings tomorrow, leaving traders focused on the final model runs and observed conditions through peak afternoon hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$6,398End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent PAGASA forecasts and supporting model consensus indicate a 33–34°C peak for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow and modest moisture, aligning with the near-even trader split between those two outcomes. May marks the climatological peak of the dry season in Metro Manila, when intense solar radiation, minimal cloud cover, and the urban heat island effect at stations like Ninoy Aquino International Airport routinely push daily maxima to 33–35°C. Subtle differences in steering patterns or afternoon humidity could shift readings by 1–2°C either way, while any late increase in convective activity would favor the lower 33°C bin. Resolution depends on official PAGASA maximum temperature readings tomorrow, leaving traders focused on the final model runs and observed conditions through peak afternoon hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,398End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLRecent PAGASA forecasts and supporting model consensus indicate a 33–34°C peak for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow and modest moisture, aligning with the near-even trader split between those two outcomes. May marks the climatological peak of the dry season in Metro Manila, when intense solar radiation, minimal cloud cover, and the urban heat island effect at stations like Ninoy Aquino International Airport routinely push daily maxima to 33–35°C. Subtle differences in steering patterns or afternoon humidity could shift readings by 1–2°C either way, while any late increase in convective activity would favor the lower 33°C bin. Resolution depends on official PAGASA maximum temperature readings tomorrow, leaving traders focused on the final model runs and observed conditions through peak afternoon hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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