Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble forecasts highlight variable cloud cover and light northeasterly winds as the main drivers keeping Dallas's expected daily maximum near 75–77 °F, with implied probabilities clustered tightly between the two leading bins. These conditions reduce surface heating rates compared to clear-sky climatology for late May, when average highs climb toward 85 °F. Dew-point values in the upper 60s and modest boundary-layer mixing further limit afternoon temperature peaks, while slight model spread in timing of any weak frontal passage accounts for the balanced odds between 75 °F or below and the 76–77 °F range. Updated guidance expected from the National Weather Service this afternoon will refine the final observation at Dallas Love Field.