Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a warm southwesterly flow will advect milder air into the Chicago region ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting a daytime high in the upper 70s. This setup aligns with the market’s leading 78–79 °F and 76–77 °F brackets, as clear to partly cloudy skies allow strong solar heating while modest boundary-layer moisture limits further warming. Historical May climatology shows similar patterns often peak near 72 °F, but recent model runs have trended 4–6 °F above normal. Updated GFS and ECMWF solutions expected later today will refine the exact timing of any afternoon cloud increase or wind shift that could cap or boost the final maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on May 19?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 19?
78-79°F 28%
76-77°F 26%
74-75°F 13%
84°F or higher 13%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
13%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
12%
82-83°F
11%
84°F or higher
13%
78-79°F 28%
76-77°F 26%
74-75°F 13%
84°F or higher 13%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
65°F or below
$337 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$247 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$212 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$53 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$37 Vol.
3%
74-75°F
$177 Vol.
13%
76-77°F
$170 Vol.
26%
78-79°F
$311 Vol.
28%
80-81°F
$399 Vol.
12%
82-83°F
$248 Vol.
11%
84°F or higher
$502 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a warm southwesterly flow will advect milder air into the Chicago region ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting a daytime high in the upper 70s. This setup aligns with the market’s leading 78–79 °F and 76–77 °F brackets, as clear to partly cloudy skies allow strong solar heating while modest boundary-layer moisture limits further warming. Historical May climatology shows similar patterns often peak near 72 °F, but recent model runs have trended 4–6 °F above normal. Updated GFS and ECMWF solutions expected later today will refine the exact timing of any afternoon cloud increase or wind shift that could cap or boost the final maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,630End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a warm southwesterly flow will advect milder air into the Chicago region ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting a daytime high in the upper 70s. This setup aligns with the market’s leading 78–79 °F and 76–77 °F brackets, as clear to partly cloudy skies allow strong solar heating while modest boundary-layer moisture limits further warming. Historical May climatology shows similar patterns often peak near 72 °F, but recent model runs have trended 4–6 °F above normal. Updated GFS and ECMWF solutions expected later today will refine the exact timing of any afternoon cloud increase or wind shift that could cap or boost the final maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,630End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDRecent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a warm southwesterly flow will advect milder air into the Chicago region ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting a daytime high in the upper 70s. This setup aligns with the market’s leading 78–79 °F and 76–77 °F brackets, as clear to partly cloudy skies allow strong solar heating while modest boundary-layer moisture limits further warming. Historical May climatology shows similar patterns often peak near 72 °F, but recent model runs have trended 4–6 °F above normal. Updated GFS and ECMWF solutions expected later today will refine the exact timing of any afternoon cloud increase or wind shift that could cap or boost the final maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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