Recent meteorological observations and ensemble forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high likelihood of Beijing reaching a daily maximum between 26°C and 28°C on May 18, driven by typical late-spring southerly flow and moderate humidity levels. The market's heaviest concentration around 27°C (34%) reflects this consensus while acknowledging model spread from subtle variations in cloud cover, wind speed, and urban heat effects. Historical May averages near 26–27°C provide context, yet short-term uncertainty persists due to potential overnight frontal passages or localized convection, which could shift the peak by 1–2°C. Updated runs from global models will refine probabilities ahead of official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 18?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 18?
27°C 34%
26°C 25%
28°C 14%
25°C 13%
NEW
$36,627 Vol.
NEW
$36,627 Vol.
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
13%
26°C
25%
27°C
34%
28°C
14%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 34%
26°C 25%
28°C 14%
25°C 13%
NEW
$36,627 Vol.
NEW
$36,627 Vol.
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
$10,747 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$4,395 Vol.
1%
24°C
$3,812 Vol.
3%
25°C
$2,275 Vol.
13%
26°C
$2,574 Vol.
25%
27°C
$1,590 Vol.
34%
28°C
$1,307 Vol.
14%
29°C
$1,503 Vol.
5%
30°C
$3,446 Vol.
1%
31°C
$2,773 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$2,248 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological observations and ensemble forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high likelihood of Beijing reaching a daily maximum between 26°C and 28°C on May 18, driven by typical late-spring southerly flow and moderate humidity levels. The market's heaviest concentration around 27°C (34%) reflects this consensus while acknowledging model spread from subtle variations in cloud cover, wind speed, and urban heat effects. Historical May averages near 26–27°C provide context, yet short-term uncertainty persists due to potential overnight frontal passages or localized convection, which could shift the peak by 1–2°C. Updated runs from global models will refine probabilities ahead of official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$36,627End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological observations and ensemble forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high likelihood of Beijing reaching a daily maximum between 26°C and 28°C on May 18, driven by typical late-spring southerly flow and moderate humidity levels. The market's heaviest concentration around 27°C (34%) reflects this consensus while acknowledging model spread from subtle variations in cloud cover, wind speed, and urban heat effects. Historical May averages near 26–27°C provide context, yet short-term uncertainty persists due to potential overnight frontal passages or localized convection, which could shift the peak by 1–2°C. Updated runs from global models will refine probabilities ahead of official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$36,627End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAARecent meteorological observations and ensemble forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high likelihood of Beijing reaching a daily maximum between 26°C and 28°C on May 18, driven by typical late-spring southerly flow and moderate humidity levels. The market's heaviest concentration around 27°C (34%) reflects this consensus while acknowledging model spread from subtle variations in cloud cover, wind speed, and urban heat effects. Historical May averages near 26–27°C provide context, yet short-term uncertainty persists due to potential overnight frontal passages or localized convection, which could shift the peak by 1–2°C. Updated runs from global models will refine probabilities ahead of official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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