Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts point to a high near 86°F in Austin on May 22, with partly sunny skies, southwesterly winds around 5–8 mph, and a 30–40% chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. This setup aligns with typical late-May climatology for central Texas, where average highs reach 85–88°F amid increasing Gulf moisture and weak upper-level ridging. Recent runs from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show limited spread, with most solutions holding daytime peaks between 84–87°F and minimal overnight cooling. These conditions support the strong market-implied probability for 86°F or higher while leaving room for small downward revisions if cloud cover or early storms intensify. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational inputs ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on May 22?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 22?
86°F or higher 79%
84-85°F 18%
82-83°F 4.5%
80-81°F 1.8%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
18%
86°F or higher
79%
86°F or higher 79%
84-85°F 18%
82-83°F 4.5%
80-81°F 1.8%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
67°F or below
$475 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,570 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$166 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$141 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$3,091 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$1,279 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$378 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$280 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$253 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$250 Vol.
18%
86°F or higher
$327 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts point to a high near 86°F in Austin on May 22, with partly sunny skies, southwesterly winds around 5–8 mph, and a 30–40% chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. This setup aligns with typical late-May climatology for central Texas, where average highs reach 85–88°F amid increasing Gulf moisture and weak upper-level ridging. Recent runs from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show limited spread, with most solutions holding daytime peaks between 84–87°F and minimal overnight cooling. These conditions support the strong market-implied probability for 86°F or higher while leaving room for small downward revisions if cloud cover or early storms intensify. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational inputs ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Volume
$8,202End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts point to a high near 86°F in Austin on May 22, with partly sunny skies, southwesterly winds around 5–8 mph, and a 30–40% chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. This setup aligns with typical late-May climatology for central Texas, where average highs reach 85–88°F amid increasing Gulf moisture and weak upper-level ridging. Recent runs from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show limited spread, with most solutions holding daytime peaks between 84–87°F and minimal overnight cooling. These conditions support the strong market-implied probability for 86°F or higher while leaving room for small downward revisions if cloud cover or early storms intensify. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational inputs ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,202End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts point to a high near 86°F in Austin on May 22, with partly sunny skies, southwesterly winds around 5–8 mph, and a 30–40% chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. This setup aligns with typical late-May climatology for central Texas, where average highs reach 85–88°F amid increasing Gulf moisture and weak upper-level ridging. Recent runs from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show limited spread, with most solutions holding daytime peaks between 84–87°F and minimal overnight cooling. These conditions support the strong market-implied probability for 86°F or higher while leaving room for small downward revisions if cloud cover or early storms intensify. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational inputs ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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