Following a sharp cold snap with Ankara highs dipping to 8-10°C on May 3-4 amid an Arctic airmass and wintry precipitation, short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles now project a rebound to mild spring conditions on May 7, centering trader-implied odds tightly around 18-19°C. Key differentiators include the speed of upper-level trough departure enabling southerly flow for warmer advection versus persistent low clouds or afternoon showers capping peaks at 16-17°C, as seen in divergent model runs (e.g., one forecast at 13°C cloudy, another 19°C mostly sunny). Climatological May norms near 20°C add context, but uncertainty persists ahead of 00z model updates and Turkish Meteorological Service advisories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on May 7?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 7?
18°C 48%
19°C 36%
17°C 12%
20°C 6.3%
NEW
$11,759 Vol.
NEW
$11,759 Vol.
May 7, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
12%
18°C
48%
19°C
36%
20°C
6%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
18°C 48%
19°C 36%
17°C 12%
20°C 6.3%
NEW
$11,759 Vol.
NEW
$11,759 Vol.
May 7, 2026
12°C or below
$466 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,098 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,072 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$900 Vol.
1%
16°C
$1,894 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,382 Vol.
12%
18°C
$1,623 Vol.
48%
19°C
$840 Vol.
36%
20°C
$845 Vol.
6%
21°C
$799 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$862 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Following a sharp cold snap with Ankara highs dipping to 8-10°C on May 3-4 amid an Arctic airmass and wintry precipitation, short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles now project a rebound to mild spring conditions on May 7, centering trader-implied odds tightly around 18-19°C. Key differentiators include the speed of upper-level trough departure enabling southerly flow for warmer advection versus persistent low clouds or afternoon showers capping peaks at 16-17°C, as seen in divergent model runs (e.g., one forecast at 13°C cloudy, another 19°C mostly sunny). Climatological May norms near 20°C add context, but uncertainty persists ahead of 00z model updates and Turkish Meteorological Service advisories.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$11,759End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Following a sharp cold snap with Ankara highs dipping to 8-10°C on May 3-4 amid an Arctic airmass and wintry precipitation, short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles now project a rebound to mild spring conditions on May 7, centering trader-implied odds tightly around 18-19°C. Key differentiators include the speed of upper-level trough departure enabling southerly flow for warmer advection versus persistent low clouds or afternoon showers capping peaks at 16-17°C, as seen in divergent model runs (e.g., one forecast at 13°C cloudy, another 19°C mostly sunny). Climatological May norms near 20°C add context, but uncertainty persists ahead of 00z model updates and Turkish Meteorological Service advisories.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,759End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Following a sharp cold snap with Ankara highs dipping to 8-10°C on May 3-4 amid an Arctic airmass and wintry precipitation, short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles now project a rebound to mild spring conditions on May 7, centering trader-implied odds tightly around 18-19°C. Key differentiators include the speed of upper-level trough departure enabling southerly flow for warmer advection versus persistent low clouds or afternoon showers capping peaks at 16-17°C, as seen in divergent model runs (e.g., one forecast at 13°C cloudy, another 19°C mostly sunny). Climatological May norms near 20°C add context, but uncertainty persists ahead of 00z model updates and Turkish Meteorological Service advisories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions